Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 19%, revenue downgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 revenue forecast fell from €334.2m to €326.9m. EPS estimate rose from €0.668 to €0.792. Net income forecast to shrink 5.3% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €20.34. Share price fell 4.3% to €17.60 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 09
First half 2026 earnings released First half 2026 results: Revenue: €180.9m (down 25% from 1H 2025). Net income: €15.3m (down 33% from 1H 2025). Profit margin: 8.5% (down from 9.4% in 1H 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to €19.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 28x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has deteriorated. 2026 revenue forecast decreased from €361.3m to €349.2m. EPS estimate also fell from €0.953 per share to €0.804 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 43% next year vs 11% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France . Consensus price target of €21.52 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 7.2% to €16.15 over the past week. Announcement • Sep 05
TFF Group, Annual General Meeting, Oct 24, 2025 TFF Group, Annual General Meeting, Oct 24, 2025. Location: saint romain, dijon France Declared Dividend • Sep 03
Dividend reduced to €0.50 Dividend of €0.50 is 17% lower than last year. Ex-date: 4th November 2025 Payment date: 6th November 2025 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) but the company has no free cash flows available, indicating it may be using cash reserves or debt to pay the dividend. The dividend has increased by an average of 9.6% per year over the past 10 years and has been stable with no material reductions to payments, indicating a long track record of dividend growth and stability. EPS is expected to grow by 155% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Jul 16
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.2% Last year net profit margin: 12% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (2.5% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 11
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to €19.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 41% over the past three years. New Risk • Jul 11
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.2% Last year net profit margin: 12% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.7% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Jul 11
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: €425.4m (down 13% from FY 2024). Net income: €30.7m (down 46% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 7.2% (down from 12% in FY 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Packaging industry in Europe are expected to grow by 2.9%. New Risk • Jul 10
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.7% operating cash flow to total debt). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 3.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Price Target Changed • May 05
Price target decreased by 7.7% to €29.62 Down from €32.08, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 38% above last closing price of €21.50. Stock is down 49% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.52 for next year compared to €2.60 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 14
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €24.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 15% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €32.96 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 10
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 9.6% to €27.30. The fair value is estimated to be €36.12, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 19% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 2.6% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 20% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jan 11
First half 2025 earnings released First half 2025 results: Revenue: €240.2m (down 9.1% from 1H 2024). Net income: €22.7m (down 42% from 1H 2024). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 15% in 1H 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.7% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 10
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €468.7m to €451.0m. EPS estimate also fell from €2.21 per share to €1.77 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 32% next year vs 13% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France . Consensus price target down from €40.00 to €37.17. Share price fell 4.1% to €28.40 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Dec 16
Price target decreased by 12% to €40.00 Down from €45.32, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of €29.30. Stock is down 32% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.21 for next year compared to €2.60 last year. Price Target Changed • Dec 09
Price target decreased by 7.4% to €42.90 Down from €46.32, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 45% above last closing price of €29.50. Stock is down 27% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.27 for next year compared to €2.60 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 30
Upcoming dividend of €0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 06 November 2024. Payment date: 08 November 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 23% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 2.0%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.6%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.4%). New Risk • Sep 25
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The dividend is not well covered by cash flows. The company is paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Dividend yield: 1.9% This is considered a minor risk. Dividends are ultimately paid out of the company's available cash reserves. Companies that pay out too much of their cash flow are at risk of having to reduce or cut their dividend in future. If cash flow growth slows or cash flows fall, then there may not be enough cash reserves to maintain the same dividend. Or in extreme cases, companies may opt to take on debt to maintain the dividend. This risk is mitigated by the fact the dividend is covered by earnings, however, cash flows are generally more important. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (1.0% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 18
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to €32.90, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 29% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Sep 17
Price target decreased by 7.8% to €46.32 Down from €50.26, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of €33.80. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.36 for next year compared to €2.60 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €502.6m to €484.8m. EPS estimate also fell from €2.74 per share to €2.46 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 5.6% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France . Consensus price target down from €50.26 to €47.72. Share price fell 8.9% to €34.80 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 12
Price target decreased by 7.0% to €48.22 Down from €51.86, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of €38.80. Stock is down 8.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.57 for next year compared to €2.60 last year. Announcement • Sep 05
TFF Group, Annual General Meeting, Oct 25, 2024 TFF Group, Annual General Meeting, Oct 25, 2024. Location: saint romain, dijon France Reported Earnings • Sep 04
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: €2.60 (up from €2.44 in FY 2023). Revenue: €486.6m (up 11% from FY 2023). Net income: €56.4m (up 6.9% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 12% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 8.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.3% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 13% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Jul 10
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €486.6m (up 11% from FY 2023). Net income: €56.5m (up 6.9% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 12% (in line with FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.9% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 22
Now 24% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 6.2% to €42.20. The fair value is estimated to be €55.25, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 24% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 40%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.4% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 8.8% per annum over the same time period. New Risk • Jan 31
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Currently running at an operating cash loss. This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 31
Now 23% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 7.2% to €44.70. The fair value is estimated to be €36.45, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 13% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 27% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jan 14
First half 2024 earnings released First half 2024 results: Revenue: €264.3m (up 14% from 1H 2023). Net income: €39.3m (up 4.1% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 15% (down from 16% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 21
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €46.20, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 80% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €59.45 per share. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 01
Upcoming dividend of €0.60 per share at 1.0% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 November 2023. Payment date: 10 November 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 16% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.0%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.9%). Reported Earnings • Jul 14
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €439.8m (up 45% from FY 2022). Net income: €52.8m (up 47% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 12% (in line with FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 4.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Price Target Changed • Mar 15
Price target increased by 8.8% to €48.57 Up from €44.63, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 21% above last closing price of €40.20. Stock is up 34% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.38 for next year compared to €1.65 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 07
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €386.5m to €399.2m. EPS estimate increased from €2.12 to €2.38 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 9.7% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France . Consensus price target up from €44.63 to €46.57. Share price was steady at €41.50 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 23
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €1.74 (vs €0.71 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €1.74 (up from €0.71 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €232.6m (up 62% from 1H 2022). Net income: €37.8m (up 145% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 16% (up from 11% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 26% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 6% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 01
Upcoming dividend of €0.40 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 08 November 2022. Payment date: 10 November 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 24% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.1%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.0%). Price Target Changed • Oct 05
Price target increased to €42.63 Up from €38.23, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 24% above last closing price of €34.50. Stock is up 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.84 for next year compared to €1.65 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 20
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 18% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2023 has improved. 2023 revenue forecast increased from €307.4m to €362.5m. EPS estimate increased from €1.47 to €1.82 per share. Net income forecast to grow 7.9% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Packaging industry in France. Consensus price target up from €33.00 to €38.23. Share price rose 10% to €35.40 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 15
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: Revenue: €302.6m (up 16% from FY 2021). Net income: €36.6m (up 83% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 12% (up from 7.7% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 11%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20%, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the industry in France. Price Target Changed • Jul 14
Price target increased to €36.67 Up from €32.87, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 11% above last closing price of €33.10. Stock is up 23% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.02 for next year compared to €0.92 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 08
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to €23.20, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 39% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Jan 25
First half 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.71 (up from €0.60 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €143.3m (up 1.3% from 1H 2021). Net income: €15.4m (up 19% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 11% (up from 9.2% in 1H 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.5%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 8.1%, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 17% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 11% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Price Target Changed • Jan 14
Price target increased to €32.87 Up from €29.63, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 6.7% above last closing price of €30.80. Stock is up 17% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.99 for next year compared to €0.92 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 10
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €32.30, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 33x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Packaging industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Oct 29
Upcoming dividend of €0.35 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 November 2021. Payment date: 09 November 2021. Trailing yield: 1.3%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (3.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.5%). Reported Earnings • Jul 17
Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS €0.92 (vs €1.23 in FY 2020) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €260.9m (down 6.7% from FY 2020). Net income: €20.0m (down 25% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 7.7% (down from 9.5% in FY 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 14% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 11% per year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 18
New 90-day high: €30.00 The company is up 13% from its price of €26.50 on 20 November 2020. The French market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €17.60 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 20
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 16% share price gain to €28.70, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 23.4x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 20.1x. This compares to an average P/E of 23x in the Packaging industry in France. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 35%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 18
New 90-day high: €27.60 The company is up 8.0% from its price of €25.60 on 20 October 2020. The French market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 20% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €26.09 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 13
Analysts lower EPS estimates to €0.84 The 2021 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €268.0m to €254.8m. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was also lowered from €1.16 to €0.84 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 14% next year compared to 23% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in France. The consensus price target was lowered from €31.23 to €29.97. Share price is down by 1.9% to €25.30 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 19
New 90-day low: €25.10 The company is down 15% from its price of €29.60 on 21 July 2020. The French market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Packaging industry, which is down 12% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €24.86 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 28
New 90-day low: €25.30 The company is down 2.0% from its price of €25.80 on 30 June 2020. The French market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Packaging industry, which is down 8.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €24.55 per share.