Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that ZCCM Investments Holdings Plc (EPA:MLZAM) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does ZCCM Investments Holdings Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 ZCCM Investments Holdings had debt of K30.3b, up from K27.6b in one year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
A Look At ZCCM Investments Holdings' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that ZCCM Investments Holdings had liabilities of K11.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of K30.3b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had K497.7m in cash and K762.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total K40.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the K5.76b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, ZCCM Investments Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since ZCCM Investments Holdings will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
In the last year ZCCM Investments Holdings had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 17%, to K12b. That's not what we would hope to see.
Caveat Emptor
While ZCCM Investments Holdings's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Its EBIT loss was a whopping K3.6b. Reflecting on this and the significant total liabilities, it's hard to know what to say about the stock because of our intense dis-affinity for it. Like every long-shot we're sure it has a glossy presentation outlining its blue-sky potential. But the fact is that it incinerated K2.4b of cash in the last twelve months, and has precious few liquid assets in comparison to its liabilities. So is this a high risk stock? We think so, and we'd avoid it. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for ZCCM Investments Holdings that you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTPA:MLZAM
ZCCM Investments Holdings
Operates as a diversified mining investment and operations company in Zambia and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet and good value.