New Risk • Sep 30
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended December 2024. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€8.0m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (25% average weekly change). Revenue is less than US$1m (€361k revenue, or US$424k). Market cap is less than US$10m (€600.0k market cap, or US$704.9k). Minor Risk Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported December 2024 fiscal period end). Board Change • Jul 01
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 11 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Director Marie-Odile Lavenant was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 05
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 54% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.505 to -€0.78 per share. Revenue forecast of €600.0k unchanged since last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 9.8% next year. Consensus price target of €2.40 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 93% to €0.062 over the past week. New Risk • Jun 05
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €1.54m (US$1.76m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€8.0m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (28% average weekly change). Revenue is less than US$1m (€361k revenue, or US$412k). Market cap is less than US$10m (€1.54m market cap, or US$1.76m). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable next year (€8.4m net loss next year). Announcement • Mar 22
Global Bioenergies SA, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025 Global Bioenergies SA, Annual General Meeting, May 15, 2025. Location: 5 rue henri desbrueres, evry courcouronnes France Major Estimate Revision • Mar 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 53% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -€0.511 to -€0.782 per share. Revenue forecast of €570.0k unchanged since last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 18% next year. Consensus price target of €2.40 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.6% to €1.26 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 10
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 72% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €2.07m to €570.0k. Forecast losses increased from -€0.501 to -€0.511 per share. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target of €2.40 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 6.3% to €1.21 over the past week. New Risk • Feb 06
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€4.7m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€5.7m). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€5.2m net loss in 2 years). Revenue is less than US$5m (€4.7m revenue, or US$4.9m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€21.8m market cap, or US$22.5m). Reported Earnings • Feb 04
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €4.69m (up 44% from FY 2023). Net loss: €5.86m (loss narrowed 32% from FY 2023). Revenue is expected to decline by 124% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in France are expected to grow by 5.1%. New Risk • Oct 18
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €8.84m (US$9.57m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€146k). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Revenue is less than US$1m (€535k revenue, or US$580k). Market cap is less than US$10m (€8.84m market cap, or US$9.57m). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€8.5m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Oct 10
New major risk - Negative shareholders equity The company has negative equity. Total equity: -€146k This is considered a major risk. Being in negative equity means that the company's liabilities exceed its assets, meaning it owes more to creditors than it has in owned assets. While this doesn't mean the company is about to collapse, in the long-term, this is unsustainable. The company may have issues meeting financial obligations, is at risk of becoming insolvent and may have difficulty raising capital, especially more debt, if needed. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Negative equity (-€146k). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Revenue is less than US$1m (€535k revenue, or US$585k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€8.5m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€24.0m market cap, or US$26.2m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 10
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 27% to €1.32. The fair value is estimated to be €1.67, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue is forecast to grow by 447% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to decline by 15% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 11
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 51%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from €1.75m to €860.0k. EPS estimate increased from -€0.545 to -€0.524 per share. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target of €2.60 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.7% to €1.61 over the past week. New Risk • May 19
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.2% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€9.5m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€33.2m market cap, or US$36.1m). Announcement • May 12
Global Bioenergies SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024 Global Bioenergies SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2024. Location: 5 rue henri desbrueres, evry courcouronnes France New Risk • Apr 12
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 6.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 6.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€9.5m net loss in 2 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (€36.9m market cap, or US$39.3m). Major Estimate Revision • Apr 11
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 45% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €3.20m to €1.75m. Forecast losses increased from -€0.14 to -€0.455 per share. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target down from €4.00 to €2.40. Share price rose 4.0% to €2.02 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 07
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €8.91m (up €8.33m from FY 2022). Net loss: €8.66m (loss narrowed 28% from FY 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 53% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in France are expected to grow by 5.0%. Announcement • Oct 19
Global Bioenergies Announces the Appointment of Martin Stephan as Chief Business Officer Global Bioenergies announced Martin Stephan joins the company as chief business officer. Martin Stephan has spent his entire career in the chemical industry, in France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. As Deputy Chief Executive Officer of CARBIOS from 2017 to 2022, he notably contributed to the strong growth of this major listed player in the green chemistry market. He previously held strategic positions as Head of International Sales in global groups, particularly in The Chemours Company and Du Pont de Nemours, the world leader in innovative specialty products for industry. Martin Stephan is a graduate of HEC. Reported Earnings • Sep 21
First half 2023 earnings released First half 2023 results: Revenue: €7.33m (up €7.22m from 1H 2022). Net loss: €4.08m (loss narrowed 29% from 1H 2022). Revenue is expected to decline by 29% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Chemicals industry in France are expected to grow by 4.4%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • May 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 26% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -€0.48 to -€0.605 per share. Revenue forecast of €6.40m unchanged since last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target down from €5.60 to €5.15. Share price rose 15% to €2.38 over the past week. Board Change • Apr 02
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 11 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. Independent Chairman Corinne Granger was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 31
No longer forecast to breakeven The analyst covering Global Bioenergies no longer expects the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €4.70m in 2025. New forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €1.30m in 2025. Price Target Changed • Mar 30
Price target decreased by 22% to €5.60 Down from €7.15, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 164% above last closing price of €2.12. Stock is down 58% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 21
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to €0.22 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.475 to -€0.22 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from €10.7m at last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 24% next year. Consensus price target of €7.05 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at €2.85 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 21
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The analyst covering Global Bioenergies expects the company to break even for the first time. New forecast suggests losses will reduce by 31% per year to 2024. The company is expected to make a profit of €4.70m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 67% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Feb 17
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: €1.72m (up 106% from FY 2021). Net loss: €12.0m (loss widened 1.8% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 77% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.6% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in France. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 14
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The analyst covering Global Bioenergies expects the company to break even for the first time. New forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €4.70m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 39% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Price Target Changed • Dec 13
Price target increased to €16.37 Up from €7.15, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 353% above last closing price of €3.62. Stock is down 21% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.75 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.79 last year. Price Target Changed • Sep 27
Price target decreased to €7.15 Down from €7.75, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 99% above last closing price of €3.59. Stock is down 40% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.71 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.79 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €3.88m (up €3.82m from FY 2020). Net loss: €11.8m (loss widened 5.6% from FY 2020). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3,781%. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 33% compared to a 12% growth forecast for the industry in France. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 01
Forecast to breakeven in 2024 The 2 analysts covering Global Bioenergies expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €700.0k in 2024. Average annual earnings growth of 48% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2021 earnings released: €0.69 loss per share (vs €0.80 loss in 1H 2020) First half 2021 results: Net loss: €7.62m (loss widened 9.9% from 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Breakeven Date Change • May 18
No longer forecast to breakeven The 2 analysts covering Global Bioenergies no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €4.20m in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €7.65m in 2023. Reported Earnings • Apr 25
Full year 2020 earnings released: €1.10 loss per share (vs €1.65 loss in FY 2019) Full year 2020 results: Net loss: €11.1m (loss narrowed 23% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 41% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 28% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 19
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a solid full year result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €3.28m (up €3.16m from FY 2019). Net loss: €11.1m (loss narrowed 13% from FY 2019). Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 15
New 90-day high: €9.48 The company is up 201% from its price of €3.15 on 16 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is flat over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 24
New 90-day high: €4.14 The company is up 17% from its price of €3.54 on 26 August 2020. The French market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Sep 21
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of €12.1m, with losses narrowing by 2.5% from the prior year.