These Analysts Think AXA SA's (EPA:CS) Sales Are Under Threat

One thing we could say about the analysts on AXA SA (EPA:CS) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

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Following the downgrade, the consensus from ten analysts covering AXA is for revenues of €91b in 2025, implying a small 2.3% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 19% to €3.91. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €110b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.33 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for AXA

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the €44.23 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the AXA's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would also point out that the forecast 4.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 7.4% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect AXA to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that AXA's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Often, one downgrade can set off a daisy-chain of cuts, especially if an industry is in decline. So we wouldn't be surprised if the market became a lot more cautious on AXA after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AXA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.