COFACE (ENXTPA:COFA) - Share price, News & Analysis

COFA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	2/6

COFA Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 25.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 84.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.9% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 14.94% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

COFACE Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for COFACE
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€10.04
52 Week High	€13.19
52 Week Low	€8.25
Beta	0.93
1 Month Change	-5.10%
3 Month Change	-5.01%
1 Year Change	-1.28%
3 Year Change	13.19%
5 Year Change	14.35%
Change since IPO	-11.07%

Shareholder Returns

	COFA	FR Insurance	FR Market
7D	-2.6%	-0.3%	3.6%
1Y	-1.3%	6.8%	-11.3%

Return vs Industry: COFA underperformed the French Insurance industry which returned 5.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: COFA exceeded the French Market which returned -14% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is COFA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
COFA volatility
COFA Average Weekly Movement	5.8%
Insurance Industry Average Movement	5.1%
Market Average Movement	5.0%
10% most volatile stocks in FR Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in FR Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: COFA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of French stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: COFA's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1946	3,667	Xavier Durand	https://www.coface.com

COFACE SA, through its subsidiaries, provides credit insurance products and related services for microenterprises, small and medium enterprises, mid-market companies, international corporations, financial institutions, and clients of distribution partners. The company offers credit insurance products to protect companies against default on payment of its trade receivables. It also provides integrated credit management solutions comprising credit insurance, single risk insurance, business information and debt collection services for insured and uninsured businesses; and factoring services, as well as contract and environmental surety, customs and excise, and legal bonds; and payment guarantees.

COFACE Fundamentals Summary

How do COFACE's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
COFA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€1.50b
Earnings (TTM)	€233.69m
Revenue (TTM)	€1.66b

6.4x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is COFA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
COFA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€1.66b
Cost of Revenue	€577.31m
Gross Profit	€1.08b
Other Expenses	€844.36m
Earnings	€233.69m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.56
Gross Margin	65.12%
Net Profit Margin	14.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio	156.1%

How did COFA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

14.9%

Current Dividend Yield

100%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is COFA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COFA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for COFA. This is calculated by dividing COFA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is COFA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€1.50b

COFA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.1x
PEG Ratio	-2.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COFA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

COFA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for COFA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	9x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COFA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the peer average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COFA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Insurance Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COFA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (9.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COFA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COFA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.4x
Fair PE Ratio	9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COFA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COFA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COFA (€10.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€13.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COFA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: COFA's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is COFACE forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-2.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: COFA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.9% per year).

Earnings vs Market: COFA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: COFA's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: COFA's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the French market (5.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: COFA's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: COFA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).

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Past Performance

How has COFACE performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

21.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: COFA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: COFA's current net profit margins (14.1%) are higher than last year (8.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: COFA's earnings have grown significantly by 21.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: COFA's earnings growth over the past year (84.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (21.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: COFA earnings growth over the past year (84.6%) exceeded the Insurance industry 13.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: COFA's Return on Equity (10.9%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is COFACE's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: COFA's short term assets (€4.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (€3.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: COFA's short term assets (€4.8B) exceed its long term liabilities (€3.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: COFA's net debt to equity ratio (137.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: COFA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 166.6% to 156.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: COFA's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (8.1%).

Interest Coverage: COFA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (14.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is COFACE current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

14.94%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: COFA's dividend (14.94%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the French market (1.82%).

High Dividend: COFA's dividend (14.94%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the French market (5.47%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: COFA has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: COFA's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 6 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (99.9%), COFA's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (92.3%), COFA's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Xavier Durand (57 yo)

6.33yrs

Tenure

€2,545,955

Compensation

Mr. Xavier Pascal Durand has been Chief Executive Officer of Coface SA since February 9, 2016 and was its MD. Mr. Durand has been Chief Executive Officer of the Insurance Group Coface since February 2016....

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Xavier's total compensation ($USD2.69M) is above average for companies of similar size in the French market ($USD949.24K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Xavier's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: COFA's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: COFA's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31