A Look At The Fair Value Of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (EPA:FDJ)

Key Insights

• La Française des Jeux Société anonyme's estimated fair value is €36.6 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €39.4 suggests La Française des Jeux Société anonyme is trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for FDJ is €38.57 which is 5.4% above our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of La Française des Jeux Société anonyme (EPA:FDJ) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme

Is La Française des Jeux Société anonyme Fairly Valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€400.3m	€429.3m	€449.2m	€464.2m	€475.6m	€484.3m	€491.1m	€496.4m	€500.8m	€504.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 4.62%	Est @ 3.35%	Est @ 2.46%	Est @ 1.83%	Est @ 1.40%	Est @ 1.09%	Est @ 0.88%	Est @ 0.73%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	€374	€374	€365	€352	€337	€320	€303	€286	€269	€253

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €3.2b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €504m× (1 + 0.4%) ÷ (7.1%– 0.4%) = €7.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €7.5b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= €3.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €7.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €39.4, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at La Française des Jeux Société anonyme as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.010. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For La Française des Jeux Société anonyme, there are three pertinent elements you should consider:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for La Française des Jeux Société anonyme that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does FDJ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every French stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.