€171 Million Belgian Prison Project Could Be a Game Changer for Eiffage (ENXTPA:FGR)

• On November 7, 2025, Eiffage, through Eiffage Concessions, signed a €171 million DBFM contract with the Belgian Building Authority and Federal Public Justice Service to design, build, finance, and maintain a new prison facility in Vresse-sur-Semois, Wallonia, Belgium, scheduled for completion in 2029.
• This long-term project, targeting BREEAM Excellent certification and involving multiple Eiffage subsidiaries, marks the group's second major partnership on prison infrastructure in Belgium, further expanding its footprint in the country’s public-private infrastructure sector.
• We'll explore how the addition of this multi-year Belgian prison project could influence Eiffage's earnings visibility and international diversification story.

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Eiffage Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Eiffage today, you need to believe in the company’s ability to grow its steady, diversified infrastructure pipeline outside France, balancing against intense domestic headwinds and margin pressures. The €171 million Belgian prison contract adds predictable, long-term revenue but is not likely to shift the most important short-term catalyst: performance in France’s construction and real estate markets, which remain under heavy pressure, nor does it alter the biggest current risk of persistent weakness and acquisition challenges.

Among recent announcements, the over €1.5 billion EPCIC contract with RTE for offshore wind substations stands out as especially relevant, as it underlines Eiffage’s growing international project base and commitment to energy transition infrastructure. Together with new public-private projects like the Belgian prison, these moves contribute to a more visible order book but do not immediately offset exposure to France’s fragile property markets. Contrast this with the risk that investors particularly need to watch in the coming quarters...

Read the full narrative on Eiffage (it's free!)

Eiffage is projected to reach €26.8 billion in revenue and €1.3 billion in earnings by 2028. Achieving this requires an annual revenue growth rate of 2.5% and an earnings increase of approximately €333 million from the current €967.0 million.

Uncover how Eiffage's forecasts yield a €142.12 fair value, a 26% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members offered three independent fair value estimates for Eiffage, ranging from €142.12 to €237.61 per share. While this wide spread reflects differing growth views, keep in mind that persistent challenges in France’s property and construction sector continue to shape the outlook across all scenarios.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Eiffage - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Eiffage Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Eiffage research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Eiffage research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Eiffage's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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