New Risk • May 16
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €2.61m (US$2.92m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€56m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (35% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€2.61m market cap, or US$2.92m). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (€53m net loss in 3 years). Announcement • Apr 22
McPhy Energy S.A. Receives Bid for Potential Takeover McPhy Energy S.A., (ENXTPA:ALMCP) announced the opening, by decision of the President of the Tribunal de Commerce of Belfort dated April 10, 2025, of a conciliation procedure and the appointment of SCP Abitbol & Rousselet, represented by Maître Joanna Rousselet, as conciliator. The opening of these proceedings was driven by the Company's current financial position, with its cash runway at the end of June 2025[1] and to strengthen its chances of finding a new partner as soon as possible. In this context, McPhy, together with the conciliator, has decided to initiate, in parallel with the ongoing search for in bonis[ 2] offers, a call for tenders for takeover as a sale plan with a view to the implementation, if necessary, of a pre-pack sale, in order to have the most appropriate legal framework to preserve the fundamentals of the Company. The pre-pack sale offers a framework for preparing a (total or partial) sale of the Company's assets and activities while preserving the best interests of the Company. In the event of a takeover as a disposal plan, McPhy Energy, including its assets and activities not taken over, could be subject to judicial liquidation procedure resulting in the delisting of McPhy's shares, the anticipated residual value of which would then be minimal or nil McPhy has chosen to make this information, which is usually confidential, public in order to unite employees, shareholders and stakeholders around this process and thus maximize its chances of finding new partners. In this regard, McPhy announces that it has already received a first expression of interest from a European industrial player which, if confirmed, will be examined as part of the above-mentioned tender procedure. McPhy and the conciliator inform that the deadline for the submission of offers is set for May 9, 2025 at noon. The market will be informed of any developments in the situation. Price Target Changed • Apr 09
Price target decreased by 15% to €1.58 Down from €1.86, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 214% above last closing price of €0.51. Stock is down 74% over the past year. Announcement • Apr 07
McPhy Energy Announces Resignation of Jean-Baptiste Lucas as Chief Executive Officer McPhy Energy, announced that its Board of Directors, during its meeting of 4 April, took note of the resignation, for personal reasons, of Mr. Jean-Baptiste Lucas as Chief Executive Officer. A search process for a new Chief Executive Officer has been initiated by the Board of Directors, in collaboration with the Appointments and Remuneration Committee. Mr. Jean-Baptiste Lucas will hold his office until the appointment of his successor, and no later than July 31, 2025. Reported Earnings • Apr 03
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €14.7m (down 22% from FY 2023). Net loss: €74.1m (loss widened 56% from FY 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 43% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 02
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -€2.18 to -€2.53 per share. Revenue forecast of €11.2m unchanged since last update. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income decline 4.0% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €1.82. Share price fell 46% to €0.47 over the past week. Announcement • Feb 13
McPhy Energy S.A. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 31, 2025 McPhy Energy S.A. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Mar 31, 2025 New Risk • Jan 30
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€74m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€74m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (16% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€52m net loss in 2 years). Market cap is less than US$100m (€33.3m market cap, or US$34.6m). Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €19.7m to €17.0m. Forecast losses increased from -€1.97 to -€2.08 per share. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 0.8% next year. Consensus price target down from €2.15 to €1.78. Share price fell 7.7% to €1.29 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 13
McPhy Energy S.A. Revises Revenue Guidance for the Financial Year Ending December 31, 2024 McPhy Energy S.A. revised revenue guidance for the financial year ending December 31, 2024. For the year, the company revised its revenue guidance to approximately EUR 11 million, instead of a range between EUR 18 million and EUR 22 million as communicated on October 29, 2024. This downward revision results mainly from: on one hand, the fact that the Djewels project has not been taken into account for 2024, as the parties are currently pursuing their discussions; and secondly, the partial termination of a legacy mobility contract to supply stations. As a reminder, contracts relating to projects in progress on July 16, 2024, the date of completion of the sale of the stations business, remain the responsibility of McPhy. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 05
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 24% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 revenue forecast fell from €25.8m to €19.7m. EPS estimate unchanged at -€1.97 per share. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 2.3% next year. Consensus price target down from €3.55 to €2.45. Share price was steady at €1.73 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 01
Price target decreased by 28% to €2.55 Down from €3.55, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 51% above last closing price of €1.69. Stock is down 60% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €2.04 next year compared to a net loss per share of €1.70 last year. Announcement • Oct 30
McPhy Energy S.A. Provides Revenue Guidance for the Full Year 2024 McPhy Energy S.A. provided revenue guidance for the full year 2024. The company is targeting revenue between €18 million and €22 million for the full year 2024 on its new scope, which would be close to or higher than the previous year’s revenue. Announcement • Aug 07
McPhy Energy S.A. to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Oct 29, 2024 McPhy Energy S.A. announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Oct 29, 2024 Announcement • Jul 18
McPhy Energy S.A. (ENXTPA:MCPHY) completed the acquisition of refueling station business of Atawey SAS for €24.5 million. McPhy Energy S.A. (ENXTPA:MCPHY) proposed to acquire refueling station business of Atawey SAS for €12 million on February 19, 2024. The fixed part of the proposed price for the sale would be between €11 and €12 million, plus a variable part that could amount up to several million euros. This earn-out would be implemented from the date of completion of the transaction and would be conditional on the future order intakes relating to the scope of business covered by the contemplated transaction. The transaction is subject to consultation with McPhy's employee representatives, a process which has now begun, completion of financing for the transaction, and fulfillment of usual prerequisites. McPhy will continue to pay a particular attention to the proper execution of ongoing projects, until their finalization. The transaction is expected to be finalized during the second quarter of 2024. McPhy Energy S.A. entered into an agreement to acquire refueling station business of Atawey SAS on April 19, 2024. A fixed portion of €12 million, payable over 18 months, with an initial payment of €1 million on completion of the transaction. The balance of €11 million, with related interest, will be paid as and when Atawey achieves its financing plan for the combined business, or, failing that, in Atawey shares.
McPhy Energy S.A. (ENXTPA:MCPHY) completed the acquisition of refueling station business of Atawey SAS for €24.5 million on July 17, 2024. Final sale price was set at €12 million, payable in instalments up to December 31, 2025, increased by a possible earn-out based on future orders. An earn-out conditioned to future orders relating to the business subject matter of the transaction. This earn-out, payable in cash, is estimated, on the basis of assumptions known to date, ranging from €5.6 million to €12.5 million (the latter corresponding to the contractual ceiling amount). New Risk • May 17
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€51m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€51m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (€40m net loss in 3 years). Price Target Changed • May 16
Price target increased by 12% to €3.93 Up from €3.50, the current price target is an average from 6 analysts. New target price is 22% above last closing price of €3.22. Stock is down 65% over the past year. Announcement • Apr 30
McPhy Energy S.A. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Sep 30, 2024 McPhy Energy S.A. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results on Sep 30, 2024 Reported Earnings • Mar 11
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €19.9m (up 24% from FY 2022). Net loss: €47.4m (loss widened 24% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 51% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 11
No longer forecast to breakeven The 5 analysts covering McPhy Energy no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €29.0m in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €39.9m in 2026. New Risk • Nov 01
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€42m net loss in 2 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Price Target Changed • Oct 12
Price target decreased by 25% to €10.57 Down from €14.13, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 156% above last closing price of €4.12. Stock is down 61% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.60 next year compared to a net loss per share of €1.37 last year. Buying Opportunity • Sep 25
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 36%. The fair value is estimated to be €6.88, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 9.9% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 54%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 300% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 1.0% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €21.5m to €20.9m. Losses expected to increase from €1.41 per share to €1.60. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 62% next year. Consensus price target down from €15.19 to €14.75. Share price fell 2.2% to €7.70 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -€1.41 to -€1.58 per share. Revenue forecast of €21.5m unchanged since last update. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 62% next year. Consensus price target down from €15.19 to €14.88. Share price fell 4.3% to €7.68 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
First half 2023 earnings released First half 2023 results: Revenue: €7.00m (up 34% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €23.5m (loss widened 20% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 41% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 7.6% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. New Risk • Jun 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of French stocks, typically moving 6.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (€35m net loss in 3 years). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.1% average weekly change). Price Target Changed • Jun 22
Price target decreased by 7.2% to €15.19 Down from €16.38, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 74% above last closing price of €8.71. Stock is down 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.43 next year compared to a net loss per share of €1.37 last year. New Risk • Jun 14
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (€36m net loss in 3 years). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €25.7m to €25.1m. Losses expected to increase from €1.28 per share to €1.46. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 114% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €16.56. Share price was steady at €12.89 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 09
Full year 2022 earnings released Full year 2022 results: Revenue: €16.1m (up 23% from FY 2021). Net loss: €38.2m (loss widened 62% from FY 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 46% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.6% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 08
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 12%, EPS upgraded The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from €29.3m to €25.7m. EPS estimate increased from -€1.43 to -€1.39 per share. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 64% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €16.60. Share price fell 2.5% to €12.87 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 07
No longer forecast to breakeven The 6 analysts covering McPhy Energy no longer expect the company to break even during the foreseeable future. The company was expected to make a profit of €6.70m in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a loss of €12.0m in 2025. Announcement • Feb 02
McPhy Energy S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 24, 2023 McPhy Energy S.A., Annual General Meeting, May 24, 2023. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €16.41 Down from €18.33, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 36% above last closing price of €12.08. Stock is down 48% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.15 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.85 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Director Jean-Marc Lechene was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Sep 30
Price target decreased to €17.29 Down from €18.66, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 82% above last closing price of €9.49. Stock is down 46% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.11 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.85 last year. Price Target Changed • Aug 12
Price target decreased to €19.37 Down from €22.55, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 34% above last closing price of €14.50. Stock is down 7.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.07 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.85 last year. Reported Earnings • Aug 01
First half 2022 earnings released First half 2022 results: Revenue: €5.20m (flat on 1H 2021). Net loss: €19.7m (loss widened 129% from 1H 2021). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 97%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in France. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 30
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €19.3m to €17.5m. Losses expected to increase from €0.78 per share to €0.91. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 52% next year. Consensus price target down from €22.55 to €21.66. Share price fell 3.7% to €14.99 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 21
Price target decreased to €23.18 Down from €24.92, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 57% above last closing price of €14.75. Stock is down 28% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.79 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.85 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there are only 3 independent directors on the board. The company's board is composed of: 3 independent directors. 7 non-independent directors. Independent Director Eleonore Joder was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2018. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Reported Earnings • Mar 09
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €14.6m (up 6.6% from FY 2020). Net loss: €23.6m (loss widened 153% from FY 2020). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 3.5%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 51%, compared to a 26% growth forecast for the industry in France. Price Target Changed • Jan 27
Price target decreased to €26.14 Down from €28.18, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 69% above last closing price of €15.45. Stock is down 52% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.71 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.34 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 27
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 49% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from €14.7m to €13.3m. Losses expected to increase from €0.51 per share to €0.76. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 131% next year. Consensus price target down from €28.42 to €26.37. Share price fell 19% to €15.45 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall to -€0.48 The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from €15.4m to €14.6m. Losses expected to increase from -€0.44 to -€0.48. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 33% next year. Consensus price target down from €31.83 to €26.57. Share price fell 8.0% to €15.38 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 30
First half 2021 earnings released: €0.31 loss per share (vs €0.22 loss in 1H 2020) The company reported a poor first half result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €5.21m (down 2.7% from 1H 2020). Net loss: €8.60m (loss widened 102% from 1H 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 42% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 29
Consensus revenue estimates fall to €15.4m The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from €17.7m to €15.4m. Forecast losses increased from -€0.40 to -€0.44 per share. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target down from €35.43 to €32.33. Share price was steady at €20.44 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 18
Consensus revenue estimates fall to €17.7m The consensus outlook for revenues in 2021 has deteriorated. 2021 revenue forecast decreased from €25.0m to €17.7m. Forecast losses increased from -€0.31 to -€0.40 per share. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 38% next year. Consensus price target down from €44.54 to €39.03. Share price fell 16% to €22.30 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jun 18
Price target decreased to €35.43 Down from €40.43, the current price target is an average from 5 analysts. New target price is 59% above last closing price of €22.30. Stock is up 175% over the past year. Price Target Changed • Apr 29
Price target increased to €41.03 Up from €37.73, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 32% above last closing price of €31.02. Stock is up 603% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Mar 10
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a soft full year result with increased losses and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €14.6m (up 28% from FY 2019). Net loss: €9.30m (loss widened 49% from FY 2019). Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 19
New 90-day low: €30.05 The company is down 7.0% from its price of €32.45 on 20 November 2020. The French market is up 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Machinery industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 07
New 90-day high: €37.20 The company is up 40% from its price of €26.55 on 09 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Machinery industry, which is up 23% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 17
New 90-day high: €27.55 The company is up 24% from its price of €22.20 on 19 August 2020. The French market is up 12% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Machinery industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is per share. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 14
Analysts update estimates The company's losses in 2020 are expected to improve with analysts raising their consensus EPS forecasts from -€0.46 to -€0.40. No change was made to the revenue estimate which at the last update was €15.7m. The Machinery industry in France is expected to see an average net income growth of 9.3% next year. The consensus price target increased from €22.37 to €27.43. Share price is down by 3.2% to €24.45 over the past week.