Trigano S.A. (EPA:TRI) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders of Trigano S.A. (EPA:TRI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to €128 following its latest full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €3.2b and statutory earnings per share of €14.58. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Trigano after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Trigano from seven analysts is for revenues of €3.59b in 2023 which, if met, would be a meaningful 12% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.7% to €15.55. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.53b and earnings per share (EPS) of €15.60 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €155, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Trigano, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €183 and the most bearish at €137 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Trigano is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Trigano's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Trigano is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Trigano going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Trigano is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.