Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Faurecia S.E. (EPA:EO) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Faurecia
What Is Faurecia's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Faurecia had debt of €11.4b, up from €5.33b in one year. However, it also had €4.23b in cash, and so its net debt is €7.13b.
How Healthy Is Faurecia's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Faurecia had liabilities of €13.8b falling due within a year, and liabilities of €12.1b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €4.23b as well as receivables valued at €7.57b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €14.2b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €2.42b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Faurecia would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Faurecia shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.0), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.3 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, Faurecia saw its EBIT tank 30% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Faurecia's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Faurecia recorded free cash flow of 21% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Faurecia's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its interest cover fails to inspire much confidence. We think the chances that Faurecia has too much debt a very significant. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Faurecia is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those make us uncomfortable...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ENXTPA:FRVIA
Forvia
Manufactures and sells automotive technology solutions in France, Germany, other European countries, the Americas, Asia, and internationally.
Established dividend payer and good value.