Stock Analysis

Is Delfingen Industry S.A. (EPA:ALDEL) Trading At A 27% Discount?

ENXTPA:ALDEL
Source: Shutterstock

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Delfingen Industry fair value estimate is €45.15
  • Delfingen Industry is estimated to be 27% undervalued based on current share price of €33.00
  • Our fair value estimate is 19% lower than Delfingen Industry's analyst price target of €55.67

How far off is Delfingen Industry S.A. (EPA:ALDEL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Delfingen Industry

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions) €11.3m €18.8m €16.0m €14.4m €13.5m €12.9m €12.5m €12.3m €12.2m €12.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Est @ -14.72% Est @ -9.98% Est @ -6.66% Est @ -4.34% Est @ -2.71% Est @ -1.58% Est @ -0.78% Est @ -0.22%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 12% €10.1 €15.1 €11.5 €9.3 €7.7 €6.6 €5.8 €5.1 €4.5 €4.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €80m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €12m× (1 + 1.1%) ÷ (12%– 1.1%) = €116m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €116m÷ ( 1 + 12%)10= €38m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is €118m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €33.0, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
ENXTPA:ALDEL Discounted Cash Flow July 24th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Delfingen Industry as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Delfingen Industry

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Auto Components market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the French market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the French market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Delfingen Industry, there are three additional factors you should further examine:

  1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Delfingen Industry has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does ALDEL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTPA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.