Incap Oyj Just Missed EPS By 30%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Incap Oyj (HEL:ICP1V), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €52m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just €0.13 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Incap Oyj's two analysts is for revenues of €238.5m in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €0.74, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €249.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.83 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

See our latest analysis for Incap Oyj

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €12.73, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Incap Oyj's valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Incap Oyj's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Incap Oyj.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €12.73, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Incap Oyj Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.