Metsä Board Oyj

HLSE:METSB Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.7b

Metsä Board Oyj Valuation

Is METSB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of METSB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: METSB (€4.55) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€13.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: METSB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for METSB?

Key metric: As METSB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for METSB. This is calculated by dividing METSB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is METSB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio46x
Earnings€35.10m
Market Cap€1.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does METSB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for METSB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24x
HUH1V Huhtamäki Oyj
14.6x9.0%€3.6b
KEMIRA Kemira Oyj
17.1x10.5%€2.9b
002859 Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology
33.7x32.1%CN¥8.8b
MMK Mayr-Melnhof Karton
30.4x57.9%€1.5b
METSB Metsä Board Oyj
46x53.0%€1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: METSB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46x) compared to the peer average (24x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does METSB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
METSB 46.0xIndustry Avg. 17.7xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: METSB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is METSB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

METSB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio46x
Fair PE Ratio37.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: METSB is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst METSB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€4.55
€5.71
+25.6%
8.4%€6.40€5.10n/a5
Nov ’25€4.88
€5.95
+21.9%
15.0%€7.60€5.10n/a5
Oct ’25€6.40
€7.43
+16.1%
18.8%€10.00€5.90n/a5
Sep ’25€6.27
€7.55
+20.5%
18.1%€10.00€5.90n/a5
Aug ’25€6.63
€8.08
+22.0%
15.1%€10.00€6.90n/a5
Jul ’25€7.41
€8.36
+12.9%
17.8%€11.00€6.90n/a5
Jun ’25€7.78
€8.36
+7.5%
17.8%€11.00€6.90n/a5
May ’25€6.75
€7.66
+13.6%
9.7%€8.70€6.70n/a5
Apr ’25€7.02
€7.44
+6.0%
13.3%€8.70€6.10n/a5
Mar ’25€6.95
€7.30
+5.0%
12.6%€8.70€6.10n/a5
Feb ’25€6.96
€7.51
+8.0%
12.4%€9.00€6.10n/a5
Jan ’25€7.19
€7.51
+4.5%
13.2%€9.20€6.10n/a5
Dec ’24€7.08
€7.81
+10.3%
14.8%€9.20€6.10n/a5
Nov ’24€7.15
€7.87
+10.1%
15.7%€9.50€6.10€4.885
Oct ’24€7.61
€8.13
+6.9%
12.2%€9.50€6.90€6.405
Sep ’24€7.51
€8.13
+8.3%
12.2%€9.50€6.90€6.275
Aug ’24€7.53
€8.13
+8.0%
14.2%€9.80€6.60€6.635
Jul ’24€6.76
€8.38
+24.0%
13.8%€9.80€6.60€7.415
Jun ’24€7.43
€7.88
+6.1%
12.2%€9.00€6.60€7.785
May ’24€6.54
€8.08
+23.6%
11.4%€9.00€6.60€6.755
Apr ’24€7.42
€9.60
+29.4%
15.3%€12.00€7.80€7.026
Mar ’24€8.41
€9.68
+15.1%
15.3%€12.00€7.80€6.956
Feb ’24€8.41
€10.32
+22.7%
20.4%€14.00€7.80€6.966
Jan ’24€8.77
€10.32
+17.7%
20.4%€14.00€7.80€7.196
Dec ’23€8.60
€10.20
+18.6%
22.1%€14.00€7.10€7.086
Nov ’23€7.55
€10.20
+35.1%
22.1%€14.00€7.10€7.156

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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