Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Metsä Board Oyj's (HEL:METSB) Annual Report

Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from Metsä Board Oyj (HEL:METSB), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €1.9b, statutory earnings beat expectations 4.2%, with Metsä Board Oyj reporting profits of €0.27 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Metsä Board Oyj after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Metsä Board Oyj

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Metsä Board Oyj are now predicting revenues of €2.21b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.20b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.43 in 2024. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of €7.36. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Metsä Board Oyj at €9.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €6.10. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Metsä Board Oyj's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Metsä Board Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Metsä Board Oyj is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of Metsä Board Oyj's six analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Metsä Board Oyj you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.