Stock Analysis

Kesko Oyj's (HEL:KESKOB) investors will be pleased with their 3.0% return over the last three years

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Kesko Oyj (HEL:KESKOB) shareholders, since the share price is down 13% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 18%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years that the share price fell, Kesko Oyj's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 16% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 4% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
HLSE:KESKOB Earnings Per Share Growth November 30th 2025

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Kesko Oyj's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Kesko Oyj, it has a TSR of 3.0% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Kesko Oyj provided a TSR of 2.5% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 3% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kesko Oyj (1 is a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Finnish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Kesko Oyj might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About HLSE:KESKOB

Kesko Oyj

Engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland.

Slightly overvalued with imperfect balance sheet.

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