Earnings Beat: Aspo Oyj Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

The yearly results for Aspo Oyj (HEL:ASPO) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €593m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Aspo Oyj surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.14 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Aspo Oyj

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Aspo Oyj are now predicting revenues of €640.8m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 8.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 185% to €0.58. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €653.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.65 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

The average price target fell 11% to €6.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aspo Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.2% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Aspo Oyj is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Aspo Oyj's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aspo Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Aspo Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aspo Oyj has 3 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.