MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A.

BME:MRL Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.8b

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI Valuation

Is MRL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRL (€10.33) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€7.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRL?

Key metric: As MRL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRL. This is calculated by dividing MRL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio44.9x
Earnings€129.34m
Market Cap€5.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.5x
YVIT Vitruvio Real Estate SOCIMI
50.5x20.7%€133.2m
YENT Entrecampos Cuatro Socimi
51.8xn/a€93.9m
YGOP Gop Properties Socimi
21.6xn/a€97.1m
YTRA Trajano Iberia Socimi
34.1xn/a€67.4m
MRL MERLIN Properties SOCIMI
44.9x33.4%€5.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.9x) compared to the peer average (39.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRL 44.9xIndustry Avg. 22.8xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.9x) compared to the European REITs industry average (22.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio44.9x
Fair PE Ratio53x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (44.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.33
€12.94
+25.3%
14.1%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Nov ’25€10.26
€12.95
+26.2%
14.1%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Oct ’25€11.35
€12.54
+10.5%
13.7%€15.00€7.52n/a19
Sep ’25€11.09
€12.33
+11.1%
11.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Aug ’25€10.44
€12.17
+16.6%
11.0%€14.60€9.70n/a17
Jul ’25€10.45
€12.09
+15.7%
9.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Jun ’25€11.02
€11.74
+6.5%
9.7%€14.30€9.70n/a17
May ’25€10.61
€11.29
+6.4%
9.0%€13.10€9.70n/a19
Apr ’25€9.98
€10.77
+8.0%
12.9%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Mar ’25€8.91
€10.73
+20.5%
12.8%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Feb ’25€9.33
€10.66
+14.3%
12.5%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Jan ’25€10.06
€10.17
+1.1%
12.7%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Dec ’24€9.37
€10.11
+7.9%
13.0%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Nov ’24€7.87
€9.96
+26.6%
14.7%€12.50€6.40€10.2617
Oct ’24€7.99
€10.09
+26.4%
15.6%€13.00€6.40€11.3517
Sep ’24€8.15
€10.24
+25.7%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€11.0917
Aug ’24€8.42
€10.24
+21.6%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€10.4417
Jul ’24€7.84
€10.20
+30.1%
13.0%€13.00€7.90€10.4517
Jun ’24€7.74
€10.41
+34.5%
14.2%€13.33€7.90€11.0217
May ’24€8.01
€10.56
+31.8%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€10.6117
Apr ’24€8.06
€10.59
+31.4%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€9.9817
Mar ’24€8.77
€10.60
+20.9%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€8.9117
Feb ’24€8.88
€10.72
+20.7%
14.3%€13.33€7.90€9.3317
Jan ’24€8.78
€10.74
+22.4%
14.3%€13.33€7.80€10.0617
Dec ’23€8.91
€10.82
+21.5%
13.9%€13.33€7.90€9.3717
Nov ’23€8.70
€11.10
+27.6%
13.1%€13.33€7.90€7.8718

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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