A Look at Almirall (BME:ALM) Valuation Following Breakthrough Dermatology Study Results and Pipeline Progress

Almirall (BME:ALM) just made waves at the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology Congress with fresh results from two key studies in its dermatology pipeline. The highlight is new long-term data from the POSITIVE study, showing that tildrakizumab not only delivers skin improvements for psoriasis patients, but also boosts psychological well-being. This marks a step forward in holistically managing this challenging condition. The company also presented interim findings from its ADlife study, which show strong real-world effectiveness for lebrikizumab in atopic dermatitis. Both sets of results reinforce Almirall’s commitment to both science and patients, a theme that is catching investor attention. Zooming out, these updates come after a period of momentum for Almirall shares, which have climbed nearly 36% so far this year. The market seems to be reacting positively not just to new clinical data but also to Almirall's ongoing efforts to innovate and expand its presence in core therapeutic areas. Over the past 3 months, shares are up about 6%, and the stock's one-year return approaches 35%, signaling consistent upward movement rather than a quick bounce. With so much R&D and clinical progress on display and shares trending higher, the key question now is whether there is real upside left to capture from here or if the recent performance signals that future growth is already reflected in the share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.4% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, Almirall is currently seen as trading below its estimated fair value by a wide margin. This perspective emphasizes the company’s growth potential, which is driven by its expanding dermatology pipeline and strong momentum in its core therapeutic areas.

Strong and sustained expansion of the dermatology portfolio (notably Ebglyss and Ilumetri) is supported by the growing prevalence of chronic skin and autoimmune diseases due to demographic shifts. Aggressive pipeline launches and label expansions are expected to drive double-digit net sales growth through 2030.

Curious about the numbers fueling this optimistic outlook? The narrative is underpinned by bold expectations for profit margins and earnings that could put Almirall in a league with sector leaders. What key financial leaps are being projected, and how might they justify the gap between current price and target value? Discover the critical assumptions behind this “undervalued” call that could reshape the company’s future.

Result: Fair Value of €13.3 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this optimistic scenario could quickly change if Almirall’s key dermatology drugs face tougher competition or if expected margin improvements do not materialize.

Find out about the key risks to this Almirall narrative.

Another View: Looking at Price Ratios

While analysts call Almirall undervalued based on future profits and growth, a simple look at its current price against company earnings tells a very different story. This suggests the shares might actually be expensive. Which side will prove right?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Almirall to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Almirall Narrative

If you want to dig into the numbers yourself or would rather form your own conclusions, the tools to build your own story are at your fingertips. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Almirall.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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