Gerdau S.A.

BME:XGGB Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.5b

Gerdau Valuation

Is XGGB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XGGB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XGGB (€3.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XGGB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XGGB?

Key metric: As XGGB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XGGB. This is calculated by dividing XGGB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XGGB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsR$4.83b
Market CapR$40.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XGGB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XGGB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.6x
ACX Acerinox
56.3x38.7%€2.4b
TUB Tubacex
18.2x35.7%€412.9m
TRG Tubos Reunidos
2.1xn/a€90.3m
VID Vidrala
14x3.4%€3.2b
XGGB Gerdau
8.6x2.2%€40.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (22.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XGGB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XGGB 8.6xIndustry Avg. 11.1xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XGGB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XGGB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XGGB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.22
€4.06
+26.2%
7.0%€4.74€3.64n/a14
Nov ’25€2.88
€3.95
+37.2%
5.6%€4.40€3.62n/a14
Oct ’25€3.16
€4.17
+31.9%
5.4%€4.63€3.80n/a14
Sep ’25€2.98
€4.05
+35.8%
5.5%€4.53€3.72n/a14
Aug ’25€3.04
€3.98
+30.8%
5.2%€4.36€3.57n/a15
Jul ’25€3.08
€4.17
+35.3%
5.1%€4.63€3.79n/a15
Jun ’25€3.20
€4.36
+36.3%
6.8%€5.21€3.95n/a14
May ’25€3.32
€4.30
+29.7%
10.3%€5.27€3.61n/a14
Apr ’25€3.47
€4.41
+27.2%
14.1%€6.06€3.68n/a15
Mar ’25€3.47
€4.41
+27.1%
15.0%€6.09€3.55n/a15
Feb ’25€3.30
€4.59
+39.2%
15.6%€6.17€3.60n/a15
Jan ’25€3.65
€4.75
+30.1%
12.9%€6.13€3.88n/a14
Dec ’24€3.52
€4.93
+40.2%
12.8%€6.15€3.89n/a14
Nov ’24€3.47
€4.85
+40.0%
12.4%€6.15€3.89€2.8814
Oct ’24€3.82
€4.99
+30.8%
11.6%€6.19€4.05€3.1614
Sep ’24€4.07
€5.18
+27.5%
10.3%€6.19€4.07€2.9816
Aug ’24€4.62
€5.41
+16.9%
10.6%€6.35€4.44€3.0416
Jul ’24€3.95
€5.41
+36.9%
10.6%€6.38€4.47€3.0816
Jun ’24€3.73
€5.37
+43.7%
10.7%€6.18€4.32€3.2016
May ’24€3.78
€5.25
+38.7%
11.9%€6.68€4.20€3.3217
Apr ’24€3.88
€5.10
+31.4%
10.8%€6.16€4.15€3.4717
Mar ’24€4.21
€5.20
+23.7%
10.2%€6.24€4.20€3.4716
Feb ’24€4.64
€5.41
+16.6%
8.5%€6.36€4.29€3.3016
Jan ’24€4.17
€5.27
+26.5%
7.6%€5.79€4.34€3.6515
Dec ’23€4.48
€5.16
+15.0%
7.9%€5.73€4.29€3.5215
Nov ’23€4.13
€5.28
+28.0%
10.5%€6.44€4.19€3.4715

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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