Gerdau S.A.

BME:XGGB Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.6b

Gerdau Valuation

Is XGGB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XGGB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€5.03
Fair Value
43.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: XGGB (€2.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XGGB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XGGB?

Key metric: As XGGB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XGGB. This is calculated by dividing XGGB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XGGB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7.5x
EarningsR$4.83b
Market CapR$35.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XGGB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XGGB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.4x
ACX Acerinox
58.8x39.2%€2.5b
TUB Tubacex
18.6x36.6%€423.2m
TRG Tubos Reunidos
2.2xn/a€94.4m
VID Vidrala
14x3.8%€3.2b
XGGB Gerdau
7.5x3.0%€35.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the peer average (23.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XGGB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XGGB 7.5xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XGGB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XGGB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.5x
Fair PE Ratio16.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XGGB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XGGB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.84
€3.99
+40.6%
10.3%€4.77€3.02n/a14
Jan ’26€2.82
€4.03
+42.8%
7.1%€4.67€3.58n/a14
Dec ’25€3.20
€4.10
+28.1%
7.0%€4.78€3.67n/a14
Nov ’25€2.88
€3.95
+37.2%
5.6%€4.40€3.62n/a14
Oct ’25€3.16
€4.17
+31.9%
5.4%€4.63€3.80n/a14
Sep ’25€2.98
€4.05
+35.8%
5.5%€4.53€3.72n/a14
Aug ’25€3.04
€3.98
+30.8%
5.2%€4.36€3.57n/a15
Jul ’25€3.08
€4.17
+35.3%
5.1%€4.63€3.79n/a15
Jun ’25€3.20
€4.36
+36.3%
6.8%€5.21€3.95n/a14
May ’25€3.32
€4.30
+29.7%
10.3%€5.27€3.61n/a14
Apr ’25€3.47
€4.41
+27.2%
14.1%€6.06€3.68n/a15
Mar ’25€3.47
€4.41
+27.1%
15.0%€6.09€3.55n/a15
Feb ’25€3.30
€4.59
+39.2%
15.6%€6.17€3.60n/a15
Jan ’25€3.65
€4.75
+30.1%
12.9%€6.13€3.88€2.8214
Dec ’24€3.52
€4.93
+40.2%
12.8%€6.15€3.89€3.2014
Nov ’24€3.47
€4.85
+40.0%
12.4%€6.15€3.89€2.8814
Oct ’24€3.82
€4.99
+30.8%
11.6%€6.19€4.05€3.1614
Sep ’24€4.07
€5.18
+27.5%
10.3%€6.19€4.07€2.9816
Aug ’24€4.62
€5.41
+16.9%
10.6%€6.35€4.44€3.0416
Jul ’24€3.95
€5.41
+36.9%
10.6%€6.38€4.47€3.0816
Jun ’24€3.73
€5.37
+43.7%
10.7%€6.18€4.32€3.2016
May ’24€3.78
€5.25
+38.7%
11.9%€6.68€4.20€3.3217
Apr ’24€3.88
€5.10
+31.4%
10.8%€6.16€4.15€3.4717
Mar ’24€4.21
€5.20
+23.7%
10.2%€6.24€4.20€3.4716
Feb ’24€4.64
€5.41
+16.6%
8.5%€6.36€4.29€3.3016
Jan ’24€4.17
€5.27
+26.5%
7.6%€5.79€4.34€3.6515
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 14 Analysts
€4.07
Fair Value
30.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/21 02:51
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/21 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Gerdau S.A. is covered by 36 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Rodrigo FerrazBanco Brascan S.A.
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Mary Cleia da SilvaBB Banco de Investimento S.A.