Mapfre (BME:MAP) Valuation in Focus After Earnings Jump Signals Improved Performance

Mapfre (BME:MAP) shares are drawing attention following the company’s earnings announcement, which revealed net income of €829 million for the first nine months of 2025, an increase from €653 million a year earlier.

See our latest analysis for Mapfre.

Mapfre’s recent jump in profits has amplified investor attention, but the share price tells an even bigger story. Despite some short-term volatility, with a drop of 5.01% over the past day, the year-to-date share price return sits at an impressive 54.64%. Long-term holders have seen a 272.49% total shareholder return over five years, which signals that momentum is still very much alive as the company rides this growth wave.

If Mapfre’s surge has you thinking broader, now is a perfect moment to broaden your horizons and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But after such strong returns and a substantial jump in profitability, the question remains: is Mapfre undervalued at current levels, or has the market fully accounted for all the future growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 12% Overvalued

With Mapfre’s last close at €3.83 and consensus fair value from the most-followed narrative set at €3.42, there is a notable gap between perception and analyst expectations. Here is what is driving that view.

Accelerating digital transformation efforts, including advanced data and AI adoption in claims and underwriting, are beginning to yield lower combined and expense ratios. Continued progress here should further enhance net margin and return on equity.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering why analysts expect Mapfre’s future profit mix to evolve dramatically? One major narrative assumption centers around digital reinvention and how it interplays with profitability and growth. Click through to see which ambitious projections back this controversial fair value.

Result: Fair Value of €3.42 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent currency volatility in key Latin American markets and exposure to climate-related natural disasters could quickly challenge the current growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Mapfre narrative.

Another View: The SWS DCF Model Tells a Different Story

Looking at Mapfre through the lens of our DCF model, an approach that forecasts future cash flows and discounts them to today's value, the picture changes. The SWS DCF model suggests Mapfre’s shares are trading 39% below their fair value, implying the stock might be undervalued. Is the market underestimating Mapfre’s long-term cash flow potential?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Build Your Own Mapfre Narrative

If you have a different perspective or enjoy diving into the numbers yourself, you can explore the data and build your own take in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Mapfre.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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