Mapfre (BME:MAP) shareholders have endured a 9.2% loss from investing in the stock five years ago
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Mapfre, S.A. (BME:MAP) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 32% over a half decade.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
See our latest analysis for Mapfre
SWOT Analysis for Mapfre
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Spanish market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Looking back five years, both Mapfre's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 1.6% per year. Readers should note that the share price has fallen faster than the EPS, at a rate of 7% per year, over the period. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock. The low P/E ratio of 8.85 further reflects this reticence.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Mapfre's TSR for the last 5 years was -9.2%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Mapfre's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 15%. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 1.8%, which was endured over half a decade. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for Mapfre. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Mapfre is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Spanish exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BME:MAP
Mapfre
Engages in the investment, insurance, property, financial, and services businesses in Spain.
6 star dividend payer and undervalued.
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