Misr Fertilizer Production

CASE:MFPC Stock Report

Mkt Cap: ج.م30.5b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Misr Fertilizer Production Valuation

Is MFPC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MFPC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MFPC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA2.9x
PEG Ratio-0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MFPC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MFPC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.4x
ABUK Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemical Industries (S.A.E.)
5.3x-1.2%ج.م40.5b
EFIC Egyptian Financial and Industrial SAE
4.3x18.9%ج.م2.1b
EKHO Egypt Kuwait Holding Company (S.A.E.)
6.3x0.3%US$1.3b
KZPC Kafr El Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals(S.A.E)
5.6xn/aج.م507.1m
MFPC Misr Fertilizer Production
4.8x-15.9%ج.م30.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MFPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the peer average (5.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MFPC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Chemicals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-4.2%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MFPC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the African Chemicals industry average (8x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MFPC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MFPC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.8x
Fair PE Ratio4.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MFPC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MFPC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MFPC (EGP132.99) is trading below our estimate of fair value (EGP662.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MFPC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MFPC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentج.م132.99
ج.م132.15
-0.6%
2.2%ج.م135.00ج.م128.60n/a4
Nov ’23ج.م113.68
ج.م132.15
+16.2%
2.2%ج.م135.00ج.م128.60n/a4
Oct ’23ج.م105.00
ج.م140.52
+33.8%
12.1%ج.م174.00ج.م128.60n/a5
Sep ’23ج.م109.00
ج.م140.52
+28.9%
12.1%ج.م174.00ج.م128.60n/a5
Aug ’23ج.م99.39
ج.م138.52
+39.4%
13.0%ج.م174.00ج.م125.00n/a5
Jul ’23ج.م94.02
ج.م138.52
+47.3%
13.0%ج.م174.00ج.م125.00n/a5
Jun ’23ج.م100.05
ج.م124.70
+24.6%
21.9%ج.م174.00ج.م84.00n/a6
May ’23ج.م110.00
ج.م124.70
+13.4%
21.9%ج.م174.00ج.م84.00n/a6
Apr ’23ج.م99.90
ج.م124.18
+24.3%
21.9%ج.م174.00ج.م84.00n/a6
Mar ’23ج.م89.42
ج.م112.29
+25.6%
13.5%ج.م127.00ج.م84.00n/a7
Feb ’23ج.م90.00
ج.م111.17
+23.5%
14.5%ج.م127.00ج.م84.00n/a6
Jan ’23ج.م97.49
ج.م113.34
+16.3%
16.5%ج.م140.00ج.م84.00n/a6
Dec ’22ج.م95.93
ج.م113.34
+18.1%
16.5%ج.م140.00ج.م84.00n/a6
Nov ’22ج.م96.00
ج.م110.69
+15.3%
15.5%ج.م140.00ج.م86.20ج.م113.686
Oct ’22ج.م87.98
ج.م104.02
+18.2%
10.8%ج.م123.00ج.م86.20ج.م105.006
Sep ’22ج.م81.89
ج.م103.19
+26.0%
9.6%ج.م118.00ج.م86.20ج.م109.006
Aug ’22ج.م78.02
ج.م102.19
+31.0%
8.4%ج.م112.00ج.م86.20ج.م99.396
Jul ’22ج.م76.09
ج.م101.69
+33.6%
8.3%ج.م112.00ج.م86.20ج.م94.026
Jun ’22ج.م73.68
ج.م94.62
+28.4%
15.7%ج.م110.00ج.م65.50ج.م100.056
May ’22ج.م72.11
ج.م90.95
+26.1%
14.6%ج.م103.00ج.م65.50ج.م110.006
Apr ’22ج.م71.92
ج.م90.95
+26.5%
14.6%ج.م103.00ج.م65.50ج.م99.906
Mar ’22ج.م76.48
ج.م91.78
+20.0%
15.4%ج.م108.00ج.م65.50ج.م89.426
Feb ’22ج.م73.44
ج.م89.54
+21.9%
16.1%ج.م108.00ج.م65.50ج.م90.005
Jan ’22ج.م58.74
ج.م79.18
+34.8%
11.3%ج.م88.00ج.م65.50ج.م97.494
Dec ’21ج.م52.28
ج.م81.05
+55.0%
14.8%ج.م97.50ج.م65.50ج.م95.934
Nov ’21ج.م45.67
ج.م81.05
+77.5%
14.8%ج.م97.50ج.م65.50ج.م96.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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