New Risk • May 24
New major risk - Financial position The company's interest payments are not well covered by earnings. Net interest cover: 1.5x This is considered a major risk. If the company is unable to fund interest repayments on its debt through profits, it may be forced into reducing its debt burden through selling assets, undertaking a potentially costly capital raising or even into bankruptcy in the worst case scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (1.5x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (23% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.3% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م1.86b market cap, or US$37.2m). Reported Earnings • May 15
First quarter 2025 earnings released: EPS: ج.م1.16 (vs ج.م5.97 in 1Q 2024) First quarter 2025 results: EPS: ج.م1.16 (down from ج.م5.97 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: ج.م1.69b (up 22% from 1Q 2024). Net income: ج.م92.4m (down 81% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 34% in 1Q 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 86% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 97% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Board Change • May 14
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 7 highly experienced directors. 3 independent directors (7 non-independent directors). Independent Director Menatallah Sadek was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • May 14
Price target increased by 23% to ج.م37.00 Up from ج.م30.08, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 48% above last closing price of ج.م25.05. Stock is up 64% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of ج.م11.13 last year. Announcement • Mar 03
Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.), Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025 Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.), Annual General Meeting, Mar 27, 2025, at 08:30 Egypt Standard Time. Location: alexandarie Egypt Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م2.84 (vs ج.م1.00 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م2.84 (up from ج.م1.00 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م1.93b (up 58% from 3Q 2023). Net income: ج.م227.8m (up 190% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (up from 6.5% in 3Q 2023). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 117% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 105% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 25
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 18% After last week's 18% share price decline to ج.م22.76, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.2x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 314% over the past three years. New Risk • Aug 22
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 41% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (41% net debt to equity). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (4.2% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م2.09b market cap, or US$42.8m). Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م1.88 (vs ج.م2.14 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م1.88 (down from ج.م2.14 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م1.55b (up 31% from 2Q 2023). Net income: ج.م150.4m (down 10% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 9.7% (down from 14% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.8% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 127% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 71% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م26.46, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.5x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 456% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 28
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ج.م5.96 (vs ج.م1.11 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: ج.م5.96 (up from ج.م1.11 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: ج.م1.39b (up 14% from 1Q 2023). Net income: ج.م477.5m (up 436% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 34% (up from 7.3% in 1Q 2023). The increase in margin was primarily driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 135% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 62% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م19.42, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 3.3x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 321% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to ج.م21.32, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 3.7x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 489% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 18
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15% After last week's 15% share price decline to ج.م19.67, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 3.4x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 482% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Mar 06
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ج.م5.81 (vs ج.م0.04 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: ج.م5.81 (up from ج.م0.04 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: ج.م4.84b (up 48% from FY 2022). Net income: ج.م446.3m (up ج.م449.5m from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.2% (up from net loss in FY 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.7% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 134% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 84% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 28
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to ج.م25.03, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.2x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 457% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 01
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to ج.م23.24, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.8x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 363% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م19.49, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 371% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ج.م1.02 (vs ج.م0.12 loss in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: ج.م1.02 (up from ج.م0.12 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: ج.م1.22b (up 43% from 3Q 2022). Net income: ج.م78.6m (up ج.م88.2m from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 6.4% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.3% growth forecast for the Global Building industry. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 131% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 55% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to ج.م18.97, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 5.1x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 327% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 15
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to ج.م10.66, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.9x. Average forward P/E is 13x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 124% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ج.م2.19 (vs ج.م0.76 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: ج.م2.19 (up from ج.م0.76 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: ج.م1.18b (up 64% from 2Q 2022). Net income: ج.م167.9m (up ج.م228.4m from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 14% (up from net loss in 2Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Building industry in Africa. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 119% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 47% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 14
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م8.82, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 12.5x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 212% over the past three years. New Risk • Jul 30
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Egyptian stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.1x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.4% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (ج.م551.2m market cap, or US$17.8m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 29
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م7.52, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 10.6x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 219% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • May 18
First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ج.م1.11 (vs ج.م0.37 in 1Q 2022) First quarter 2023 results: EPS: ج.م1.11 (up from ج.م0.37 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: ج.م1.22b (up 63% from 1Q 2022). Net income: ج.م89.0m (up 204% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 7.3% (up from 3.9% in 1Q 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 13% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Building industry in Africa. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 100% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 38% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Mar 05
Full year 2022 earnings released: ج.م0.04 loss per share (vs ج.م0.45 loss in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: ج.م0.04 loss per share (improved from ج.م0.45 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: ج.م3.27b (up 24% from FY 2021). Net loss: ج.م3.20m (loss narrowed 91% from FY 2021). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 85% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 47% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to ج.م4.30 Up from ج.م3.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 39% below last closing price of ج.م7.01. Stock is up 123% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of ج.م0.46 next year compared to a net loss per share of ج.م0.45 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 8 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (8 non-independent directors). Independent Director Colin Sykes was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Nov 01
An unknown buyer acquired 3.73% stake in Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.) (CASE:LCSW) from Target Real Estate Investment for EGP29.62 million. An unknown buyer acquired 3.73% stake in Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.) (CASE:LCSW) from Target Real Estate Investment for EGP29.62 million on October 31, 2022.An unknown buyer completed the acquisition of 3.73% stake in Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.) (CASE:LCSW) from Target Real Estate Investment for EGP29.62 million on October 31, 2022. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 07
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 26% share price gain to ج.م6.10, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 50.4x. Average trailing P/E is 21x in the Building industry in Africa. Total returns to shareholders of 103% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 07
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 18% share price gain to ج.م4.64, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 4x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Building industry globally. Total returns to shareholders of 33% over the past three years. Buying Opportunity • Jun 23
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 26%. The fair value is estimated to be ج.م4.83, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has been flat over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 4.2% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 27% per annum over the same time period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 08
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to ج.م3.79, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 3x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Building industry globally. Total returns to shareholders of 8.3% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at ج.م4.83 per share. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to ج.م3.80 Up from ج.م3.00, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of ج.م2.74. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of ج.م0.93 next year compared to a net loss per share of ج.م0.45 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 8 highly experienced directors. 2 independent directors (8 non-independent directors). Independent Director Colin Sykes was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2019. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 11
Forecast to breakeven in 2022 The 2 analysts covering Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.) expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of ج.م74.0m in 2022. Earnings growth of 31% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Breakeven Date Change • Mar 04
Forecast to breakeven in 2022 The 2 analysts covering Lecico Egypt (S.A.E.) expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of ج.م74.0m in 2022. Earnings growth of 31% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Aug 13
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: ج.م0.085 loss per share (vs ج.م0.94 loss in 2Q 2020) The company reported a solid second quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ج.م636.0m (up 67% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: ج.م6.80m (loss narrowed 91% from 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 27% per year but the company’s share price has remained flat, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Reported Earnings • May 30
First quarter 2021 earnings released: ج.م0.21 loss per share (vs ج.م0.90 loss in 1Q 2020) The company reported a solid first quarter result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: ج.م600.5m (up 21% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: ج.م16.8m (loss narrowed 77% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 52% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 10% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Reported Earnings • Mar 08
Full year 2020 earnings released: ج.م2.76 loss per share (vs ج.م3.73 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with reduced losses and improved control over expenses, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: ج.م2.06b (down 13% from FY 2019). Net loss: ج.م220.6m (loss narrowed 26% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 72% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 14% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 22
New 90-day low: ج.م3.90 The company is down 8.0% from its price of ج.م4.25 on 23 September 2020. The Egyptian market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Building industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 21
New 90-day high: ج.م3.40 The company is up 23% from its price of ج.م2.76 on 23 June 2020. The Egyptian market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Building industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period.