A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S Just Beat EPS By 22%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (CPH:MAERSK B) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.0% to hit US$14b. A.P. Møller - Mærsk also reported a statutory profit of US$69.00, which was an impressive 22% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering A.P. Møller - Mærsk is for revenues of US$49.7b in 2026. This implies an uncomfortable 10.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$62.42 per share in 2026. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$49.5b and losses of US$69.35 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

Check out our latest analysis for A.P. Møller - Mærsk

The average price target held steady at kr.11,847, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on A.P. Møller - Mærsk, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr.15,966 and the most bearish at kr.9,028 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.0% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.7% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for A.P. Møller - Mærsk, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that A.P. Møller - Mærsk is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.11,847, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for A.P. Møller - Mærsk going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for A.P. Møller - Mærsk (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.