Results: H. Lundbeck A/S Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

H. Lundbeck A/S (CPH:HLUN B) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.1% to hit kr.6.3b. H. Lundbeck also reported a statutory profit of kr.1.11, which was an impressive 41% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from H. Lundbeck's ten analysts is for revenues of kr.25.3b in 2026. This reflects a credible 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 14% to kr.4.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr.25.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.4.33 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for H. Lundbeck

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at kr.47.68. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic H. Lundbeck analyst has a price target of kr.72.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr.39.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that H. Lundbeck's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 7.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that H. Lundbeck is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that H. Lundbeck's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple H. Lundbeck analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of H. Lundbeck's balance sheet, and whether we think H. Lundbeck is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.