Are Investors Undervaluing Ambu A/S (CPH:AMBU B) By 27%?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 12, 2021
CPSE:AMBU B
Source: Shutterstock

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Ambu A/S (CPH:AMBU B) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Ambu

Is Ambu fairly valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Levered FCF (DKK, Millions) -kr.184.0m kr.79.6m kr.373.4m kr.1.03b kr.1.55b kr.1.94b kr.2.29b kr.2.58b kr.2.81b kr.2.99b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Analyst x5 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 25.75% Est @ 18.06% Est @ 12.67% Est @ 8.9% Est @ 6.27%
Present Value (DKK, Millions) Discounted @ 4.0% -kr.177 kr.73.6 kr.332 kr.880 kr.1.3k kr.1.5k kr.1.7k kr.1.9k kr.2.0k kr.2.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr.12b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr.3.0b× (1 + 0.1%) ÷ (4.0%– 0.1%) = kr.76b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= kr.76b÷ ( 1 + 4.0%)10= kr.51b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is kr.63b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of kr.182, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
CPSE:AMBU B Discounted Cash Flow December 12th 2021

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ambu as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.895. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Ambu, we've put together three fundamental items you should further research:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ambu you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does AMBU B's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Danish stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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