Stock Analysis

As ISS (CPH:ISS) advances 5.2% this past week, investors may now be noticing the company's five-year earnings growth

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CPSE:ISS

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term ISS A/S (CPH:ISS) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 16% over a half decade. But it's up 5.2% in the last week. The buoyant market could have helped drive the share price pop, since stocks are up 6.4% in the same period.

The recent uptick of 5.2% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for ISS

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, ISS moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

The modest 1.7% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 1.0% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

CPSE:ISS Earnings and Revenue Growth January 28th 2025

ISS is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think ISS will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of ISS, it has a TSR of -13% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that ISS shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 4.5% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 3% per year over the last half decade. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ISS better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that ISS is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Danish exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.