Vestas Wind Systems A/S Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Investors in Vestas Wind Systems A/S (CPH:VWS) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.9% to close at kr.106 following the release of its annual results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €17b were what the analysts expected, Vestas Wind Systems surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of €0.49 per share, an impressive 26% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Vestas Wind Systems

After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Vestas Wind Systems are now predicting revenues of €19.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 64% to €0.81. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €19.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.94 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr.156, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vestas Wind Systems at kr.280 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.75.01. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vestas Wind Systems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.8% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Vestas Wind Systems to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Vestas Wind Systems. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Vestas Wind Systems analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Vestas Wind Systems that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.