Mercury NZ Limited

DB:MRY Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.2b

Mercury NZ Valuation

Is MRY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRY (€3.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€8.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRY?

Key metric: As MRY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MRY. This is calculated by dividing MRY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MRY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio33x
EarningsNZ$290.00m
Market CapNZ$9.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.1x
LEC Lechwerke
25.9xn/a€2.5b
EBK EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg
28.5xn/a€17.1b
MVV1 MVV Energie
12.3xn/a€2.0b
MNV6 Mainova
33.7xn/a€1.9b
MRY Mercury NZ
33x5.0%€9.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electric Utilities Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRY 33.0xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies10PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the European Electric Utilities industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33x
Fair PE Ratio20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.62
€3.65
+0.9%
13.0%€4.20€2.83n/a5
Nov ’25€3.46
€3.70
+6.9%
10.0%€4.18€3.12n/a5
Oct ’25€3.44
€3.57
+3.9%
8.1%€3.90€3.09n/a5
Sep ’25€3.44
€3.57
+3.9%
8.1%€3.90€3.09n/a5
Aug ’25€3.72
€3.66
-1.5%
9.3%€4.07€3.09n/a5
Jul ’25€3.70
€3.77
+2.0%
9.6%€4.24€3.18n/a5
Jun ’25€3.68
€3.62
-1.6%
10.7%€4.25€3.05n/a5
May ’25€3.44
€3.53
+2.6%
10.3%€4.11€2.98n/a5
Apr ’25€3.74
€3.56
-4.9%
14.4%€4.29€2.92n/a5
Mar ’25€3.78
€3.59
-5.0%
13.3%€4.22€2.98n/a5
Feb ’25€3.90
€3.43
-11.9%
13.2%€4.05€2.90n/a5
Jan ’25€3.70
€3.31
-10.6%
13.4%€3.84€2.70n/a5
Dec ’24€3.38
€3.31
-2.2%
13.4%€3.84€2.70n/a5
Nov ’24€3.06
€3.38
+10.3%
14.6%€3.85€2.70€3.465
Oct ’24€3.42
€3.48
+1.8%
13.5%€4.02€2.86€3.445
Sep ’24€3.28
€3.44
+5.0%
12.9%€3.90€2.85€3.445
Aug ’24€3.60
€3.55
-1.3%
14.1%€4.03€2.82€3.725
Jul ’24€3.52
€3.64
+3.4%
14.2%€4.14€2.90€3.705
Jun ’24€3.60
€3.64
+1.1%
14.2%€4.14€2.90€3.685
May ’24€3.38
€3.51
+3.8%
14.7%€4.02€2.81€3.445
Apr ’24€3.50
€3.61
+3.0%
14.8%€4.21€2.88€3.745
Mar ’24€3.62
€3.70
+2.1%
14.7%€4.26€2.92€3.785
Feb ’24€3.46
€3.71
+7.1%
16.8%€4.30€2.84€3.905
Jan ’24€3.36
€3.69
+9.9%
16.4%€4.29€2.86€3.705
Dec ’23€3.24
€3.69
+14.0%
16.4%€4.29€2.86€3.385
Nov ’23€3.20
€3.63
+13.3%
15.1%€4.16€2.78€3.065

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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