Pennon Group Plc

DB:3PN Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.0b

Pennon Group Valuation

Is 3PN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3PN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3PN (€7.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3PN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3PN?

Key metric: As 3PN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3PN. This is calculated by dividing 3PN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3PN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.7x
SalesUK£985.40m
Market CapUK£1.66b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3PN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3PN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
FHW Fernheizwerk Neukölln
0.8xn/a€55.2m
MVV1 MVV Energie
0.3xn/a€2.0b
MNV6 Mainova
0.5xn/a€1.9b
ECV Encavis
6.1x7.4%€2.8b
3PN Pennon Group
1.7x7.1%€1.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3PN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3PN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Water Utilities Industry?

12 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3PN 1.7xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies13PS01.63.24.86.48+
12 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3PN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the Global Water Utilities industry average (1.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3PN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3PN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.7x
Fair PS Ratio3.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3PN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3PN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€7.14
€8.67
+21.4%
14.0%€11.03€6.93n/a12
Dec ’25€7.38
€8.60
+16.7%
12.6%€11.02€6.93n/a12
Nov ’25€6.50
€8.53
+31.3%
11.8%€10.67€7.19n/a12
Oct ’25€7.09
€8.87
+25.1%
10.7%€10.66€7.19n/a12
Sep ’25€7.03
€8.80
+25.2%
10.2%€10.49€7.07n/a12
Aug ’25€7.65
€9.18
+20.0%
11.6%€11.34€7.12n/a12
Jul ’25€6.81
€9.08
+33.4%
11.5%€11.29€7.09n/a12
Jun ’25€7.14
€9.34
+30.8%
11.6%€12.11€7.96n/a12
May ’25€7.87
€9.46
+20.2%
11.9%€12.37€7.90n/a12
Apr ’25€7.66
€9.73
+27.0%
11.8%€12.38€7.91n/a12
Mar ’25€7.73
€9.73
+25.8%
11.8%€12.38€7.91n/a12
Feb ’25€8.25
€9.56
+15.9%
14.4%€12.38€7.24n/a12
Jan ’25€8.67
€9.56
+10.4%
14.9%€12.67€7.21n/a13
Dec ’24€8.17
€9.49
+16.2%
16.1%€12.74€7.25€7.3812
Nov ’24€8.36
€9.33
+11.7%
15.9%€12.52€7.12€6.5012
Oct ’24€6.39
€9.12
+42.8%
16.3%€12.59€7.16€7.0911
Sep ’24€7.51
€10.38
+38.2%
16.6%€13.98€8.16€7.0311
Aug ’24€8.18
€10.65
+30.3%
15.4%€13.94€8.13€7.6511
Jul ’24€8.28
€11.04
+33.4%
15.1%€14.03€8.19€6.8111
Jun ’24€8.95
€11.26
+25.9%
14.3%€13.97€8.15€7.1410
May ’24€9.91
€11.02
+11.2%
13.6%€13.63€7.95€7.8711
Apr ’24€9.98
€11.19
+12.2%
14.7%€13.61€7.37€7.6611
Mar ’24€9.32
€11.22
+20.5%
15.8%€14.58€7.29€7.7311
Feb ’24€10.24
€11.28
+10.1%
15.8%€14.65€7.33€8.2511
Jan ’24€10.08
€11.52
+14.3%
15.7%€14.91€7.45€8.6711
Dec ’23€10.57
€11.86
+12.2%
16.4%€15.04€7.52€8.1711

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:49
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Pennon Group Plc is covered by 27 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John MuskBarclays
Dominic NashBarclays
Harry WyburdBNP Paribas Exane