Meridian Energy Limited

DB:15M1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €8.6b

Meridian Energy Valuation

Is 15M1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 15M1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 15M1 (€3.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€8.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 15M1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 15M1?

Key metric: As 15M1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 15M1. This is calculated by dividing 15M1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 15M1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35.7x
EarningsNZ$429.00m
Market CapNZ$15.32b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 15M1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 15M1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.6x
HRPK 7C Solarparken
62.7x54.5%€156.9m
ABO clearvise
19x-50.1%€128.9m
RWE RWE
8.2x-10.8%€23.1b
EBK EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg
28.5xn/a€17.1b
15M1 Meridian Energy
35.7x6.6%€15.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 15M1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the peer average (29.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 15M1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Renewable Energy Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
15M1 35.7xIndustry Avg. 16.0xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 15M1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the European Renewable Energy industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 15M1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

15M1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.7x
Fair PE Ratio21.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 15M1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 15M1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.36
€3.65
+8.7%
10.5%€4.07€3.07n/a5
Nov ’25€3.14
€3.64
+15.9%
10.3%€4.06€3.06n/a5
Oct ’25€3.32
€3.64
+9.6%
11.7%€4.20€3.06n/a5
Sep ’25€3.50
€3.70
+5.9%
11.9%€4.27€3.11n/a5
Aug ’25€3.50
€3.53
+1.0%
8.6%€3.83€3.06n/a5
Jul ’25€3.64
€3.61
-0.9%
8.8%€3.98€3.13n/a5
Jun ’25€3.74
€3.40
-9.1%
5.9%€3.69€3.12n/a5
May ’25€3.24
€3.23
-0.2%
10.0%€3.60€2.65n/a5
Apr ’25€3.18
€3.04
-4.4%
11.5%€3.66€2.70n/a5
Mar ’25€3.24
€3.04
-6.2%
11.4%€3.66€2.71n/a5
Feb ’25€3.10
€3.01
-2.8%
13.1%€3.73€2.68n/a5
Jan ’25€3.08
€2.92
-5.2%
13.4%€3.65€2.62n/a5
Dec ’24€2.88
€2.92
+1.4%
13.4%€3.65€2.62n/a5
Nov ’24€2.62
€2.97
+13.5%
13.0%€3.69€2.63€3.145
Oct ’24€2.84
€3.05
+7.6%
11.7%€3.69€2.64€3.325
Sep ’24€2.80
€2.99
+6.9%
10.4%€3.55€2.62€3.505
Aug ’24€3.08
€3.08
-0.1%
12.5%€3.76€2.60€3.505
Jul ’24€3.10
€3.08
-0.8%
11.6%€3.67€2.60€3.645
Jun ’24€3.04
€3.17
+4.2%
12.5%€3.85€2.67€3.745
May ’24€3.02
€3.06
+1.3%
12.7%€3.74€2.58€3.245
Apr ’24€2.99
€3.14
+5.2%
13.9%€3.93€2.65€3.185
Mar ’24€3.05
€3.21
+5.1%
14.3%€4.00€2.70€3.245
Feb ’24€3.16
€3.26
+3.0%
15.6%€4.14€2.72€3.105
Jan ’24€3.08
€3.28
+6.6%
15.8%€4.21€2.76€3.085
Dec ’23€2.95
€3.23
+9.5%
16.7%€4.18€2.62€2.885
Nov ’23€2.81
€3.10
+10.1%
17.9%€4.05€2.54€2.625

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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