China Southern Airlines Company Limited

DB:ZNHH Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.5b

China Southern Airlines Valuation

Is ZNHH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ZNHH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ZNHH (€0.33) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€0.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZNHH is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ZNHH?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ZNHH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA21.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ZNHH's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ZNHH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.9x
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
0.2x5.0%€8.0b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
1.6x-1.1%€29.5b
FRA Fraport
1.1x3.0%€4.4b
DHL Deutsche Post
0.6x4.3%€45.4b
ZNHH China Southern Airlines
0.3x8.9%€96.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ZNHH is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ZNHH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ZNHH is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (0.6x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ZNHH's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ZNHH PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ZNHH is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ZNHH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.33
€0.47
+41.1%
20.2%€0.59€0.32n/a11
Apr ’25€0.35
€0.48
+36.9%
17.9%€0.59€0.37n/a12
Mar ’25€0.38
€0.51
+36.0%
18.6%€0.69€0.37n/a12
Feb ’25€0.36
€0.51
+41.0%
17.6%€0.69€0.37n/a12
Jan ’25€0.41
€0.55
+35.0%
15.1%€0.68€0.41n/a12
Dec ’24€0.46
€0.56
+21.6%
13.0%€0.68€0.41n/a13
Nov ’24€0.45
€0.58
+28.2%
14.7%€0.72€0.42n/a13
Oct ’24€0.47
€0.61
+29.5%
16.9%€0.87€0.44n/a14
Sep ’24€0.48
€0.63
+30.0%
16.0%€0.86€0.44n/a15
Aug ’24€0.57
€0.62
+8.6%
16.3%€0.86€0.43n/a15
Jul ’24€0.54
€0.63
+17.9%
17.2%€0.86€0.43n/a15
Jun ’24€0.51
€0.67
+32.3%
16.5%€0.89€0.52n/a15
May ’24€0.64
€0.67
+5.4%
17.7%€0.89€0.46n/a15
Apr ’24€0.65
€0.67
+2.5%
19.1%€0.90€0.47€0.3514
Mar ’24€0.68
€0.68
+1.3%
18.8%€0.93€0.48€0.3814
Feb ’24€0.60
€0.65
+8.6%
16.2%€0.83€0.47€0.3613
Jan ’24€0.60
€0.59
-1.9%
20.4%€0.83€0.39€0.4113
Dec ’23€0.54
€0.55
+1.9%
17.3%€0.69€0.39€0.4613
Nov ’23€0.53
€0.57
+6.4%
16.8%€0.70€0.40€0.4513
Oct ’23€0.53
€0.58
+9.8%
14.5%€0.70€0.42€0.4713
Sep ’23€0.52
€0.61
+17.9%
16.8%€0.76€0.42€0.4813
Aug ’23€0.52
€0.61
+17.0%
16.9%€0.76€0.42€0.5713
Jul ’23€0.54
€0.57
+4.9%
15.8%€0.65€0.41€0.5413
Jun ’23€0.51
€0.57
+11.6%
13.8%€0.65€0.41€0.5113
May ’23€0.52
€0.60
+16.0%
14.8%€0.77€0.42€0.6415
Apr ’23€0.52
€0.60
+17.0%
13.7%€0.76€0.42€0.6515

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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