Southwest Airlines Co.

DB:SWN Stock Report

Market Cap: €17.1b

Southwest Airlines Valuation

Is SWN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SWN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€18.30
Fair Value
55.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
21
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SWN (€28.49) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€18.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SWN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SWN?

Key metric: As SWN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SWN. This is calculated by dividing SWN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SWN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio38.6x
EarningsUS$465.00m
Market CapUS$17.95b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SWN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SWN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.5x
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
7.2x12.3%€8.1b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
18x-16.3%€26.4b
DHL Deutsche Post
13.1x8.0%€42.2b
FRA Fraport
11.8x0.8%€5.4b
SWN Southwest Airlines
38.6x25.5%€17.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.6x) compared to the peer average (12.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SWN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SWN 38.6xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.6x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SWN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SWN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio38.6x
Fair PE Ratio23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SWN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€28.49
€30.98
+8.8%
16.0%€40.66€23.24n/a21
Feb ’26€29.96
€31.76
+6.0%
15.0%€40.52€23.15n/a20
Jan ’26€32.45
€30.60
-5.7%
16.7%€40.38€22.23n/a21
Dec ’25€30.47
€28.27
-7.2%
15.9%€37.23€18.14n/a20
Nov ’25€28.04
€27.28
-2.7%
16.8%€35.86€17.47n/a17
Oct ’25€26.45
€23.73
-10.3%
19.2%€31.43€17.06n/a17
Sep ’25€25.84
€23.10
-10.6%
17.1%€30.12€17.34n/a16
Aug ’25€24.88
€23.50
-5.5%
17.0%€30.49€17.55n/a16
Jul ’25€26.48
€24.62
-7.0%
16.8%€34.56€17.75n/a16
Jun ’25€24.09
€25.03
+3.9%
18.6%€35.27€17.64n/a18
May ’25€24.89
€25.25
+1.4%
18.5%€35.44€17.72n/a18
Apr ’25€26.76
€27.44
+2.6%
19.5%€38.58€17.45n/a19
Mar ’25€31.59
€27.35
-13.4%
21.8%€38.85€17.58n/a19
Feb ’25€27.56
€25.83
-6.3%
23.1%€36.89€13.83€29.9619
Jan ’25€26.46
€24.30
-8.2%
26.6%€43.05€16.49€32.4519
Dec ’24€23.54
€24.19
+2.8%
26.6%€42.94€16.45€30.4719
Nov ’24€21.04
€26.65
+26.7%
25.2%€44.48€17.03€28.0419
Oct ’24€25.65
€32.20
+25.5%
21.6%€52.02€18.92€26.4519
Sep ’24€29.05
€33.31
+14.7%
18.9%€50.52€22.96€25.8419
Aug ’24€30.79
€34.77
+12.9%
15.2%€50.02€27.28€24.8818
Jul ’24€32.89
€37.55
+14.2%
17.4%€55.02€29.34€26.4818
Jun ’24€27.80
€37.59
+35.2%
18.2%€58.55€29.74€24.0918
May ’24€26.97
€38.63
+43.2%
22.3%€58.08€29.04€24.8918
Apr ’24€29.43
€41.32
+40.4%
20.3%€59.04€29.52€26.7618
Mar ’24€31.52
€42.79
+35.8%
17.8%€59.89€32.75€31.5918
Feb ’24€32.52
€42.36
+30.2%
17.4%€59.00€32.27€27.5618
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 21 Analysts
€30.10
Fair Value
5.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
21
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 12:57
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Southwest Airlines Co. is covered by 42 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
Lindsay BettiolAtlantic Equities LLP
Fred LowranceAvondale Partners