Österreichische Post Valuation

Is O3P undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of O3P when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: O3P (€28.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€75.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: O3P is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for O3P?

Key metric: As O3P is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for O3P. This is calculated by dividing O3P's market cap by their current earnings.
What is O3P's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.3x
Earnings€145.00m
Market Cap€1.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does O3P's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for O3P vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
TGHN Logwin
9.8x-7.4%€691.0m
DHL Deutsche Post
12.1x8.8%€38.9b
MLL Müller - Die lila Logistik
5xn/a€41.0m
HHFA Hamburger Hafen und Logistik
42.6x55.0%€1.3b
O3P Österreichische Post
13.3x-0.7%€1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: O3P is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does O3P's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
O3P 13.3xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: O3P is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is O3P's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

O3P PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.3x
Fair PE Ratio10.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: O3P is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst O3P forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€28.65
€29.35
+2.4%
10.4%€33.70€26.00n/a4
Dec ’25€28.55
€29.35
+2.8%
10.4%€33.70€26.00n/a4
Nov ’25€29.00
€29.60
+2.1%
9.5%€33.70€27.00n/a4
Oct ’25€30.00
€29.78
-0.8%
9.0%€33.70€26.70n/a4
Sep ’25€29.45
€29.68
+0.8%
8.6%€33.30€26.70n/a4
Aug ’25€30.05
€29.53
-1.7%
9.2%€33.30€26.10n/a4
Jul ’25€30.35
€29.53
-2.7%
9.2%€33.30€26.10n/a4
Jun ’25€30.25
€29.53
-2.4%
9.2%€33.30€26.10n/a4
May ’25€30.10
€29.08
-3.4%
10.6%€33.30€26.00n/a4
Apr ’25€31.50
€29.08
-7.7%
10.6%€33.30€26.00n/a4
Mar ’25€30.15
€29.28
-2.9%
9.9%€33.30€26.00n/a4
Feb ’25€31.05
€30.18
-2.8%
12.4%€35.00€26.00n/a4
Jan ’25€32.05
€30.18
-5.9%
12.4%€35.00€26.00n/a4
Dec ’24€31.40
€29.93
-4.7%
13.5%€35.00€25.00€28.554
Nov ’24€30.25
€29.50
-2.5%
14.9%€35.00€25.00€29.004
Oct ’24€31.25
€29.50
-5.6%
14.9%€35.00€25.00€30.004
Sep ’24€31.85
€29.65
-6.9%
14.3%€35.00€25.00€29.454
Aug ’24€33.20
€29.28
-11.8%
14.2%€35.00€25.00€30.054
Jul ’24€32.40
€29.40
-9.3%
13.8%€35.00€25.00€30.354
Jun ’24€32.75
€29.40
-10.2%
13.8%€35.00€25.00€30.254
May ’24€34.85
€30.50
-12.5%
11.8%€35.00€25.00€30.104
Apr ’24€34.10
€30.50
-10.6%
11.8%€35.00€25.00€31.504
Mar ’24€34.00
€29.86
-12.2%
11.6%€35.00€25.00€30.155
Feb ’24€33.00
€29.66
-10.1%
10.7%€34.00€25.00€31.055
Jan ’24€29.30
€29.13
-0.6%
9.7%€34.00€25.00€32.056
Dec ’23€32.20
€29.13
-9.5%
9.7%€34.00€25.00€31.406

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 07:10
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Österreichische Post AG is covered by 23 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Marco LimiteBarclays
William Fitzalan HowardBerenberg
Othmane BrichaBofA Global Research