Mainfreight Limited

DB:NK7 Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.4b

Mainfreight Valuation

Is NK7 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NK7 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NK7 (€33.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€39.56)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NK7 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NK7?

Key metric: As NK7 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NK7. This is calculated by dividing NK7's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NK7's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.4x
EarningsNZ$253.17m
Market CapNZ$6.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NK7's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NK7 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.8x
TGHN Logwin
11.7x-6.36%€737.1m
DHL Deutsche Post
14.8x5.77%€52.4b
DE10 Deufol
13.3xn/a€44.2m
MLL Müller - Die lila Logistik
11.2xn/a€40.2m
NK7 Mainfreight
27.4x11.33%€6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NK7 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the peer average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NK7's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NK7 27.4xIndustry Avg. 14.9xNo. of Companies5PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NK7 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NK7's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NK7 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.4x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NK7's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NK7 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€33.60
€36.59
+8.90%
2.02%€37.49€35.52n/a5
Dec ’26€33.20
€36.59
+10.21%
2.02%€37.49€35.52n/a5
Nov ’26n/a
€35.92
0%
4.02%€37.53€33.73n/a5
Oct ’26n/a
€36.00
0%
4.19%€37.51€33.72n/a5
Sep ’26n/a
€36.60
0%
4.19%€38.13€34.27n/a5
Aug ’26n/a
€37.78
0%
3.10%€39.04€36.12n/a5
Jul ’26n/a
€40.41
0%
5.22%€42.79€36.69n/a5
Jun ’26n/a
€41.14
0%
5.22%€43.56€37.35n/a5
May ’26n/a
€40.84
0%
5.67%€43.42€37.23n/a6
Apr ’26n/a
€42.17
0%
4.04%€43.73€38.55n/a6
Mar ’26n/a
€43.86
0%
1.36%€44.83€43.32n/a6
Feb ’26n/a
€43.88
0%
1.36%€44.85€43.33n/a6
Jan ’26n/a
€43.74
0%
1.36%€44.71€43.20n/a6
Dec ’25n/a
€45.17
0%
1.37%€46.22€44.66€33.206
Nov ’25n/a
€44.22
0%
1.99%€45.68€43.03n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
€44.72
0%
2.53%€46.03€42.80n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
€44.25
0%
2.77%€45.59€42.40n/a5
Aug ’25n/a
€43.72
0%
2.98%€44.91€41.77n/a5
Jul ’25n/a
€45.43
0%
2.07%€46.73€44.33n/a5
Jun ’25n/a
€45.43
0%
2.07%€46.73€44.33n/a5
May ’25n/a
€44.30
0%
2.08%€45.88€43.25n/a5
Apr ’25n/a
€43.88
0%
4.86%€46.25€39.96n/a5
Mar ’25n/a
€42.43
0%
6.81%€46.81€38.47n/a5
Feb ’25n/a
€41.68
0%
5.50%€44.34€38.17n/a5
Jan ’25n/a
€40.16
0%
4.56%€42.88€37.38n/a5
Dec ’24n/a
€40.16
0%
4.56%€42.88€37.38n/a5
€36.23
Fair Value
7.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/12/30 20:56
End of Day Share Price 2025/12/30 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mainfreight Limited is covered by 9 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Philip CampbellCitigroup Inc
Wade GardinerDeutsche Bank
Andrew BowleyForsyth Barr Group Ltd.