Central Japan Railway Company

DB:JAP Stock Report

Market Cap: €17.3b

Central Japan Railway Valuation

Is JAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JAP (€17.84) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€12.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JAP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JAP?

Key metric: As JAP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for JAP. This is calculated by dividing JAP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is JAP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.7x
EarningsJP¥422.98b
Market CapJP¥2.84t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JAP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.1x
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
6.6x15.1%€7.4b
SIX2 Sixt
15.2x16.3%€3.3b
FRA Fraport
11.9x2.6%€5.4b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
18.9x-11.9%€27.7b
JAP Central Japan Railway
6.7x1.4%€2.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JAP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
JAP 6.7xIndustry Avg. 11.3xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (11.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JAP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JAP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.7x
Fair PE Ratio14.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JAP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JAP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€17.84
€22.60
+26.7%
11.6%€27.16€19.26n/a12
Dec ’25€19.65
€23.00
+17.1%
11.8%€27.44€19.46n/a11
Nov ’25€18.97
€22.62
+19.3%
11.2%€26.43€18.74n/a11
Oct ’25€20.21
€24.90
+23.2%
11.2%€29.78€20.41n/a11
Sep ’25€20.73
€25.13
+21.2%
12.3%€29.72€20.36n/a11
Aug ’25€20.78
€23.99
+15.4%
12.3%€28.36€19.43n/a11
Jul ’25€19.60
€23.56
+20.2%
12.0%€27.81€18.94n/a11
Jun ’25€20.51
€23.75
+15.8%
11.9%€27.71€18.87n/a11
May ’25€21.37
€24.08
+12.7%
11.3%€27.91€19.60n/a11
Apr ’25€22.75
€24.89
+9.4%
11.6%€28.67€20.13n/a10
Mar ’25€22.95
€24.21
+5.5%
9.8%€27.52€20.18n/a9
Feb ’25€22.82
€24.57
+7.6%
9.2%€28.29€20.75n/a10
Jan ’25€22.69
€23.90
+5.3%
8.7%€26.63€20.14n/a11
Dec ’24€21.60
€23.27
+7.7%
8.5%€25.99€19.65€19.6511
Nov ’24€21.50
€23.49
+9.2%
10.9%€27.06€18.70€18.9712
Oct ’24€22.77
€23.54
+3.4%
12.3%€27.47€17.22€20.2112
Sep ’24€23.47
€23.62
+0.6%
12.0%€27.56€17.27€20.7310
Aug ’24€23.04
€23.45
+1.8%
11.2%€26.75€17.49€20.7810
Jul ’24€22.79
€23.01
+1.0%
11.1%€25.67€16.60€19.6011
Jun ’24€22.49
€23.53
+4.6%
11.2%€26.82€17.35€20.5110
May ’24€22.40
€23.82
+6.3%
10.9%€26.56€17.61€21.3710
Apr ’24€21.61
€24.23
+12.1%
10.8%€27.22€17.91€22.7510
Mar ’24€20.75
€24.13
+16.3%
10.4%€27.12€17.85€22.9511
Feb ’24€21.71
€24.90
+14.7%
10.9%€28.26€18.23€22.8211
Jan ’24€22.76
€24.04
+5.6%
10.7%€27.73€18.02€22.6912
Dec ’23€22.82
€24.00
+5.2%
11.0%€27.48€17.87€21.6012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 15:10
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Central Japan Railway Company is covered by 34 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Takayuki HayanoBarclays
Yasuharu SugimuraBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Nathan GeeBofA Global Research