Japan Airlines Co., Ltd.

DB:JAL Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.7b

Japan Airlines Valuation

Is JAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JAL (€15.1) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€9.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JAL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JAL?

Key metric: As JAL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for JAL. This is calculated by dividing JAL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is JAL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13x
EarningsJP¥83.74b
Market CapJP¥1.09t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
6.6x2.0%€7.4b
FRA Fraport
12.1x2.6%€5.5b
SIX2 Sixt
15.6x14.1%€3.4b
293 Cathay Pacific Airways
7.2x-1.6%HK$60.6b
JAL Japan Airlines
13x10.8%€1.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
JAL 13.0xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies7PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ratio15.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JAL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€15.10
€18.53
+22.7%
9.2%€21.87€15.79n/a10
Dec ’25€15.60
€19.11
+22.5%
9.1%€22.55€16.29n/a10
Nov ’25€14.50
€18.46
+27.3%
9.0%€21.72€15.68n/a10
Oct ’25€15.50
€19.06
+23.0%
9.1%€22.34€16.14n/a10
Sep ’25€15.10
€19.01
+25.9%
8.1%€22.28€16.71n/a10
Aug ’25€14.80
€19.30
+30.4%
7.9%€22.19€16.65n/a10
Jul ’25€14.60
€18.43
+26.2%
9.4%€22.05€15.67n/a10
Jun ’25€15.50
€19.21
+23.9%
8.8%€22.31€15.85n/a10
May ’25€16.60
€19.64
+18.3%
7.1%€22.57€17.82n/a9
Apr ’25€17.37
€20.08
+15.6%
7.1%€23.08€18.22n/a9
Mar ’25€16.95
€20.48
+20.9%
7.6%€23.35€18.44n/a8
Feb ’25€17.90
€20.79
+16.2%
6.6%€23.03€18.68n/a9
Jan ’25€17.57
€21.77
+23.9%
9.0%€26.05€19.06€15.0010
Dec ’24€17.17
€21.22
+23.6%
9.3%€25.11€18.37€15.6010
Nov ’24€16.65
€21.51
+29.2%
9.4%€25.56€18.08€14.5011
Oct ’24€18.20
€21.92
+20.4%
8.5%€25.95€18.99€15.5012
Sep ’24€18.89
€21.31
+12.8%
10.4%€25.67€17.53€15.1012
Aug ’24€19.57
€20.69
+5.7%
11.5%€26.04€17.15€14.8013
Jul ’24€19.66
€20.49
+4.2%
11.2%€26.20€17.25€14.6014
Jun ’24€18.18
€20.31
+11.7%
8.8%€23.84€18.13€15.5012
May ’24€17.22
€20.93
+21.6%
9.1%€24.47€18.61€16.6011
Apr ’24€17.73
€20.97
+18.3%
9.8%€24.45€17.91€17.3711
Mar ’24€17.52
€20.78
+18.6%
10.0%€24.45€17.91€16.9512
Feb ’24€19.19
€21.53
+12.2%
9.6%€25.59€19.19€17.9012
Jan ’24€18.93
€21.47
+13.5%
10.7%€25.66€17.11€17.5712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 10:31
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ryota HimenoBarclays
Arnaud BouchetBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Nathan GeeBofA Global Research