Air Transport Services Group Valuation

Is AW8 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AW8 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AW8 (€20.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€34.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AW8 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AW8?

Key metric: As AW8 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AW8. This is calculated by dividing AW8's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AW8's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.7x
Sales	US$1.96b
Market Cap	US$1.43b

AW8 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AW8's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AW8 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.3x
TGHN Logwin	0.6x	2.8%	€719.8m
DHL Deutsche Post	0.5x	4.1%	€40.7b
DE10 Deufol	0.1x	n/a	€43.4m
MLL Müller - Die lila Logistik	0.2x	n/a	€43.8m
AW8 Air Transport Services Group	0.7x	4.9%	€1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AW8 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (0.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AW8's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

1 Company	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AW8 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AW8's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AW8 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.7x
Fair PS Ratio	0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AW8 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.