Ryanair Holdings Valuation

Is RY4C undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RY4C when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RY4C (€18.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RY4C is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RY4C?

Key metric: As RY4C is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RY4C. This is calculated by dividing RY4C's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RY4C's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13x
Earnings€1.53b
Market Cap€19.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RY4C's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RY4C vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
6.6x14.0%€7.4b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
18.6x-8.9%€27.2b
DHL Deutsche Post
12.4x9.0%€40.0b
INDIGO InterGlobe Aviation
24.6x17.8%₹1.6t
RY4C Ryanair Holdings
13x11.0%€20.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RY4C is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RY4C's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RY4C 13.0xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies10PE0816243240+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RY4C is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (10.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RY4C's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RY4C PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13x
Fair PE Ratio17.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RY4C is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RY4C forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€18.32
€20.60
+12.4%
14.7%€26.25€12.50n/a21
Nov ’25€17.55
€19.95
+13.7%
16.5%€26.25€12.50n/a21
Oct ’25€16.55
€19.62
+18.6%
17.8%€26.25€12.50n/a20
Sep ’25€16.01
€19.17
+19.7%
18.0%€26.25€12.50n/a19
Aug ’25€14.30
€18.92
+32.3%
18.7%€26.25€12.50n/a19
Jul ’25€16.43
€24.33
+48.1%
11.6%€30.00€18.50n/a19
Jun ’25€17.99
€25.12
+39.7%
8.7%€30.00€21.70n/a19
May ’25€20.29
€26.29
+29.6%
9.1%€30.00€21.70n/a19
Apr ’25€21.20
€25.81
+21.7%
9.5%€30.00€21.70n/a19
Mar ’25€19.89
€25.70
+29.3%
9.3%€30.00€21.70n/a19
Feb ’25€19.55
€25.14
+28.6%
8.4%€30.00€21.70n/a19
Jan ’25€19.03
€24.03
+26.3%
7.5%€29.00€21.70n/a18
Dec ’24€18.00
€23.71
+31.7%
6.7%€27.15€21.00n/a19
Nov ’24€14.81
€23.06
+55.7%
7.5%€27.15€20.00€17.5519
Oct ’24€15.87
€23.03
+45.2%
7.6%€27.15€20.00€16.5519
Sep ’24€16.17
€23.09
+42.8%
7.9%€27.15€20.00€16.0119
Aug ’24€15.80
€23.09
+46.1%
7.9%€27.15€20.00€14.3019
Jul ’24€17.29
€22.31
+29.0%
9.3%€27.15€18.00€16.4319
Jun ’24€16.67
€22.13
+32.8%
9.9%€27.15€18.00€17.9918
May ’24€14.86
€19.87
+33.7%
12.8%€27.15€17.00€20.2917
Apr ’24€14.93
€19.19
+28.5%
17.5%€27.15€10.00€21.2017
Mar ’24€15.01
€19.40
+29.3%
17.4%€27.15€10.00€19.8918
Feb ’24€14.97
€18.92
+26.4%
15.1%€22.60€10.00€19.5517
Jan ’24€12.53
€17.16
+37.0%
16.3%€21.30€10.00€19.0316
Dec ’23€13.20
€16.88
+27.9%
16.2%€21.30€10.00€18.0016
Nov ’23€12.31
€16.80
+36.5%
18.3%€21.10€10.00€14.8115

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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