Earnings Update: Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) Just Reported Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HLAG) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to €135 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €19b and statutory earnings per share of €13.57 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Hapag-Lloyd is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Hapag-Lloyd's ten analysts is for revenues of €17.2b in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 10% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 64% to €4.85 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.22 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

The consensus price target held steady at €116, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hapag-Lloyd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €169 and the most bearish at €75.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 10% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Hapag-Lloyd is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hapag-Lloyd. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Hapag-Lloyd's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Hapag-Lloyd analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Hapag-Lloyd (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.