Ciena Corporation

DB:CIE1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €9.7b

Ciena Valuation

Is CIE1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CIE1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CIE1 (€65.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€96.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CIE1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CIE1?

Key metric: As CIE1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CIE1. This is calculated by dividing CIE1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CIE1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio73.3x
EarningsUS$138.13m
Market CapUS$10.13b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CIE1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CIE1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.8x
FEW Funkwerk
10.1xn/a€163.6m
CEK CeoTronics
32.9x25.1%€41.1m
JNPR Juniper Networks
47.5x30.9%US$11.9b
2345 Accton Technology
36.8x24.5%NT$357.7b
CIE1 Ciena
73.3x39.5%€10.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CIE1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.3x) compared to the peer average (31.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CIE1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Communications Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CIE1 73.3xIndustry Avg. 31.0xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CIE1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.3x) compared to the Global Communications industry average (30.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CIE1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CIE1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio73.3x
Fair PE Ratio25.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CIE1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CIE1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€65.10
€62.37
-4.2%
12.1%€75.90€43.64n/a15
Nov ’25€58.32
€60.11
+3.1%
12.3%€73.98€42.54n/a15
Oct ’25€55.02
€55.91
+1.6%
9.1%€61.19€41.40n/a15
Sep ’25€51.36
€51.11
-0.5%
10.8%€59.43€39.62n/a15
Aug ’25€48.80
€52.53
+7.7%
10.3%€61.44€40.96n/a15
Jul ’25€44.15
€52.53
+19.0%
10.3%€61.44€40.96n/a15
Jun ’25€44.00
€52.91
+20.3%
12.3%€62.79€39.24n/a15
May ’25€43.84
€55.42
+26.4%
12.5%€63.91€39.95n/a16
Apr ’25€46.40
€54.96
+18.4%
11.1%€62.11€38.82n/a14
Mar ’25€56.00
€54.61
-2.5%
10.6%€62.84€39.27n/a14
Feb ’25€48.70
€54.26
+11.4%
11.2%€63.91€38.80n/a15
Jan ’25€40.40
€54.71
+35.4%
11.3%€65.03€39.48n/a15
Dec ’24€41.20
€56.35
+36.8%
10.3%€66.63€43.79n/a15
Nov ’24€39.70
€56.35
+41.9%
10.3%€66.63€43.79€58.3215
Oct ’24€44.60
€56.35
+26.3%
10.3%€66.63€43.79€55.0215
Sep ’24€46.10
€54.27
+17.7%
11.3%€64.98€42.70€51.3614
Aug ’24€38.70
€50.25
+29.8%
13.4%€62.50€36.60€48.8014
Jul ’24€38.90
€52.34
+34.6%
13.3%€63.89€37.42€44.1514
Jun ’24€43.40
€57.53
+32.6%
12.4%€67.16€40.84€44.0014
May ’24€41.60
€57.53
+38.3%
12.4%€67.16€40.84€43.8414
Apr ’24€47.33
€59.23
+25.1%
15.0%€78.85€41.26€46.4015
Mar ’24€45.28
€59.18
+30.7%
12.8%€72.04€42.66€56.0016
Feb ’24€46.91
€56.97
+21.5%
12.4%€69.18€40.96€48.7017
Jan ’24€46.80
€59.12
+26.3%
12.4%€72.14€42.71€40.4017
Dec ’23€42.70
€55.73
+30.5%
14.2%€68.71€38.71€41.2017
Nov ’23€47.42
€59.65
+25.8%
13.2%€73.17€46.38€39.7017

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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