Jenoptik AG Just Missed EPS By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 5.7% to €19.44. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €244m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 16% to hit €0.16 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Jenoptik. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, Jenoptik's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €1.11b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 3.5% to €1.43 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.61 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Jenoptik

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €26.96, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Jenoptik analyst has a price target of €35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €19.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jenoptik's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Jenoptik's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jenoptik.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jenoptik. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Jenoptik analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Jenoptik that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.