Earnings Beat: Jenoptik AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Jenoptik AG (ETR:JEN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.2% to €21.82 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues €274m disappointed slightly, at3.3% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of €0.46 coming in 15% above what was anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Jenoptik

Following the latest results, Jenoptik's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of €1.15b in 2025. This would be a modest 2.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 13% to €1.68. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.96 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 9.6% to €31.56, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jenoptik at €39.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.60. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Jenoptik's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jenoptik.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jenoptik. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jenoptik's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Jenoptik going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Jenoptik that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.