Trend Micro Incorporated

DB:TMI Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.8b

Trend Micro Valuation

Is TMI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TMI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TMI (€51.45) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€67.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TMI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TMI?

Key metric: As TMI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TMI. This is calculated by dividing TMI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TMI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio45.7x
EarningsJP¥24.34b
Market CapJP¥1.11t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TMI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TMI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.1x
IXX init innovation in traffic systems
19.7x27.8%€360.5m
IVU IVU Traffic Technologies
20.9xn/a€255.7m
NEM Nemetschek
64x18.5%€10.9b
BC8 Bechtle
15.6x9.4%€3.9b
TMI Trend Micro
45.7x17.2%€1.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.7x) compared to the peer average (30.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TMI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Software Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TMI 45.7xIndustry Avg. 26.3xNo. of Companies19PE020406080100+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.7x) compared to the European Software industry average (26.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TMI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TMI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio45.7x
Fair PE Ratio29.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TMI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TMI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€51.45
€53.35
+3.7%
8.2%€60.50€44.45n/a9
Dec ’25€51.25
€53.74
+4.9%
8.5%€61.11€44.90n/a9
Nov ’25€47.34
€50.68
+7.1%
6.7%€55.78€43.81n/a9
Oct ’25€50.95
€51.66
+1.4%
8.2%€57.31€42.66n/a10
Sep ’25€54.70
€48.65
-11.1%
10.8%€55.89€38.50n/a10
Aug ’25€43.86
€45.38
+3.5%
10.5%€52.50€36.58n/a10
Jul ’25€38.72
€45.38
+17.2%
10.5%€52.50€36.58n/a10
Jun ’25€41.18
€46.05
+11.8%
11.2%€52.40€36.50n/a10
May ’25€46.06
€47.83
+3.8%
11.6%€54.22€37.47n/a10
Apr ’25€46.20
€47.83
+3.5%
11.6%€54.22€37.47n/a10
Mar ’25€46.95
€47.90
+2.0%
13.5%€55.31€37.80n/a10
Feb ’25€52.10
€46.82
-10.1%
16.9%€56.21€36.60n/a10
Jan ’25€47.65
€44.23
-7.2%
19.6%€57.15€29.85n/a10
Dec ’24€49.00
€41.01
-16.3%
15.6%€55.72€29.42€51.2511
Nov ’24€36.35
€39.27
+8.0%
11.7%€45.43€29.66€47.3411
Oct ’24€35.35
€39.27
+11.1%
11.7%€45.43€29.66€50.9511
Sep ’24€38.65
€39.27
+1.6%
11.7%€45.43€29.66€54.7011
Aug ’24€42.35
€41.79
-1.3%
11.4%€48.08€32.05€43.8612
Jul ’24€43.75
€41.79
-4.5%
11.4%€48.08€32.05€38.7212
Jun ’24€44.85
€42.26
-5.8%
12.0%€51.09€32.14€41.1812
May ’24€44.00
€43.49
-1.2%
11.8%€52.72€32.48€46.0612
Apr ’24€44.08
€43.49
-1.3%
11.8%€52.72€32.48€46.2012
Mar ’24€43.76
€44.32
+1.3%
12.1%€52.55€32.37€46.9512
Feb ’24€43.56
€49.04
+12.6%
12.1%€61.67€38.98€52.1012
Jan ’24€42.90
€49.04
+14.3%
12.1%€61.67€38.98€47.6512
Dec ’23€47.32
€49.55
+4.7%
13.7%€61.08€38.61€49.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 01:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Trend Micro Incorporated is covered by 26 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yuki KanekoBofA Global Research
Mitsunobu TsuruoCitigroup Inc
null nullCLSA