Progress Software Corporation

DB:PGR Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.9b

Progress Software Valuation

Is PGR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PGR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PGR (€65.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€126.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PGR?

Key metric: As PGR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PGR. This is calculated by dividing PGR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PGR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio36x
EarningsUS$82.63m
Market CapUS$2.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PGR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PGR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.5x
IXX init innovation in traffic systems
19.4x27.8%€354.6m
IVU IVU Traffic Technologies
20.3xn/a€231.1m
TMV TeamViewer
15x11.1%€1.8b
AOF ATOSS Software
43.4x7.8%€1.9b
PGR Progress Software
36x24.5%€3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the peer average (24.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PGR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Software Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PGR 36.0xIndustry Avg. 28.1xNo. of Companies19PE020406080100+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the European Software industry average (28.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PGR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PGR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio36x
Fair PE Ratio28.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PGR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€65.50
€67.63
+3.2%
7.5%€73.82€59.98n/a7
Nov ’25€58.50
€68.96
+17.9%
6.3%€73.89€60.03n/a6
Oct ’25€60.00
€64.44
+7.4%
5.8%€70.47€58.72n/a6
Sep ’25€52.00
€57.61
+10.8%
6.3%€62.18€50.29n/a7
Aug ’25€54.00
€57.61
+6.7%
6.3%€62.18€50.29n/a7
Jul ’25€50.50
€58.85
+16.5%
6.1%€62.73€51.50n/a7
Jun ’25€45.60
€59.26
+30.0%
4.0%€62.46€55.93n/a7
May ’25€46.80
€58.76
+25.6%
3.8%€61.89€55.42n/a8
Apr ’25€48.80
€58.76
+20.4%
3.8%€61.89€55.42n/a8
Mar ’25€49.40
€58.83
+19.1%
4.3%€61.91€55.45n/a6
Feb ’25€52.50
€58.20
+10.9%
3.8%€60.65€55.14n/a6
Jan ’25€49.20
€59.91
+21.8%
3.8%€62.43€56.75n/a6
Dec ’24€49.40
€59.91
+21.3%
3.8%€62.43€56.75n/a6
Nov ’24€48.40
€59.91
+23.8%
3.8%€62.43€56.75€58.506
Oct ’24€50.50
€59.91
+18.6%
3.8%€62.43€56.75€60.006
Sep ’24€56.00
€58.91
+5.2%
4.5%€63.87€54.74€52.007
Aug ’24€54.50
€58.52
+7.4%
6.1%€64.15€52.23€54.007
Jul ’24€49.40
€58.52
+18.5%
6.1%€64.15€52.23€50.507
Jun ’24€56.00
€58.16
+3.9%
6.0%€64.18€52.26€45.607
May ’24€49.80
€58.16
+16.8%
6.0%€64.18€52.26€46.807
Apr ’24€51.50
€58.16
+12.9%
6.0%€64.18€52.26€48.807
Mar ’24€54.00
€54.31
+0.6%
9.2%€65.55€49.63€49.407
Feb ’24€48.60
€54.00
+11.1%
9.6%€64.61€48.92€52.506
Jan ’24€47.20
€51.69
+9.5%
15.5%€65.79€42.30€49.206
Dec ’23€50.50
€56.41
+11.7%
14.3%€71.42€45.91€49.407
Nov ’23€51.50
€56.41
+9.5%
14.3%€71.42€45.91€48.407

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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