Exasol AG

XTRA:EXL Stock Report

Market Cap: €57.7m

Exasol Valuation

Is EXL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EXL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EXL (€2.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EXL?

Key metric: As EXL is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for EXL. This is calculated by dividing EXL's market cap by their current revenue.
What is EXL's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
Sales€36.81m
Market Cap€57.69m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does EXL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for EXL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.8x
CYR cyan
9.1x28.1%€54.9m
IVU IVU Traffic Technologies
1.8xn/a€227.7m
IXX init innovation in traffic systems
1.4x13.2%€365.4m
SUSE SUSE
3x7.4%€1.9b
EXL Exasol
1.5x13.0%€57.7m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: EXL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does EXL's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Software Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CSH CENIT
0.4x5.2%US$75.69m
CLIQ Cliq Digital
0.09x12.6%US$26.28m
LSX LS telcom
0.5x5.0%US$21.25m
IVX InVision
0.6xn/aUS$10.13m
EXL 1.5xIndustry Avg. 1.8xNo. of Companies7PS02.44.87.29.612+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: EXL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the German Software industry average (1.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EXL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EXL PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: EXL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EXL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.02
€4.55
+125.2%
31.9%€6.00€3.10n/a2
Nov ’25€1.71
€4.70
+175.7%
34.0%€6.30€3.10n/a2
Oct ’25€1.90
€4.70
+147.4%
34.0%€6.30€3.10n/a2
Sep ’25€2.24
€4.70
+109.8%
34.0%€6.30€3.10n/a2
Aug ’25€2.28
€4.65
+103.9%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
Jul ’25€2.39
€4.65
+94.6%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
Jun ’25€2.52
€4.65
+84.5%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
May ’25€2.48
€4.65
+87.5%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
Apr ’25€2.58
€4.65
+80.2%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
Mar ’25€2.70
€4.65
+72.5%
35.5%€6.30€3.00n/a2
Feb ’25€3.26
€5.85
+79.7%
14.5%€6.70€5.00n/a2
Jan ’25€3.15
€5.85
+86.0%
14.5%€6.70€5.00n/a2
Dec ’24€2.83
€5.45
+92.6%
15.6%€6.30€4.60n/a2
Nov ’24€2.09
€10.75
+415.6%
2.3%€11.00€10.50€1.712
Oct ’24€2.85
€10.75
+277.9%
2.3%€11.00€10.50€1.902
Sep ’24€3.02
€10.75
+256.6%
2.3%€11.00€10.50€2.242
Aug ’24€2.84
€12.50
+340.9%
8.0%€13.50€11.50€2.282
Jul ’24€3.26
€12.75
+291.1%
5.9%€13.50€12.00€2.392
Jun ’24€3.27
€12.75
+290.5%
5.9%€13.50€12.00€2.522
May ’24€3.45
€12.75
+269.6%
5.9%€13.50€12.00€2.482
Apr ’24€3.96
€12.75
+222.0%
5.9%€13.50€12.00€2.582
Mar ’24€4.24
€12.75
+201.1%
5.9%€13.50€12.00€2.702
Feb ’24€3.98
€18.50
+364.8%
27.0%€23.50€13.50€3.262
Jan ’24€2.95
€18.50
+527.1%
27.0%€23.50€13.50€3.152
Dec ’23€2.90
€18.50
+537.9%
27.0%€23.50€13.50€2.832
Nov ’23€3.00
€19.00
+533.3%
28.9%€24.50€13.50€2.092

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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