Analysts Are Updating Their Northern Data AG (FRA:NB2) Estimates After Its Annual Results

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Northern Data AG (FRA:NB2), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at €200m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was €2.21, some 14% larger than the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Northern Data after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Northern Data's six analysts is for revenues of €528.8m in 2025. This reflects a huge 164% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Northern Data is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.065 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €531.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.13 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Northern Data

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €46.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Northern Data at €60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €36.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Northern Data's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 164% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 48% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Northern Data to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Northern Data. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Northern Data going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Northern Data (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.