Kontron AG Recorded A 5.5% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Kontron AG (ETR:SANT) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to €22.12 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €401m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €1.42 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Kontron's seven analysts is for revenues of €1.91b in 2026. This reflects an okay 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 5.2% to €2.10 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.12 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Kontron

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €31.47, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kontron at €37.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €27.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Kontron's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Kontron is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Kontron's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kontron going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Kontron that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.