PVA TePla AG (ETR:TPE) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a mediocre week for PVA TePla AG (ETR:TPE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to €20.26 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. PVA TePla's revenues suffered a miss, falling 15% short of forecasts, at €56m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) however performed much better, reaching break-even. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, PVA TePla's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €291.6m in 2026. This would be a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 39% to €1.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €294.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.07 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for PVA TePla

The consensus price target held steady at €28.33, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PVA TePla at €39.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €15.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 8.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that PVA TePla is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PVA TePla. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PVA TePla. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for PVA TePla going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for PVA TePla (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.