Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

DB:OL6 Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.4b

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Valuation

Is OL6 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OL6 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€101.77
Fair Value
0.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: OL6 (€101) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€101.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OL6 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OL6?

Key metric: As OL6 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OL6. This is calculated by dividing OL6's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OL6's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.5x
EarningsUS$207.68m
Market CapUS$6.55b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OL6's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OL6 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average47x
ECK LUDWIG BECK am Rathauseck - Textilhaus Feldmeier
98.1xn/a€52.1m
ZAL Zalando
40.3x19.8%€8.2b
FIE Fielmann Group
24x18.9%€3.4b
DOU Douglas
25.4x22.1%€2.1b
OL6 Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
31.5x10.8%€6.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OL6 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the peer average (47x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OL6's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OL6 31.5xIndustry Avg. 21.5xNo. of Companies21PE01632486480+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OL6 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (21.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OL6's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OL6 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.5x
Fair PE Ratio15.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OL6 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OL6 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€101.00
€120.24
+19.1%
6.9%€129.72€100.89n/a15
Jan ’26€112.00
€120.24
+7.4%
6.9%€129.72€100.89n/a15
Dec ’25€95.00
€99.76
+5.0%
11.9%€113.58€60.58n/a15
Nov ’25€84.00
€93.66
+11.5%
11.2%€104.10€57.93n/a15
Oct ’25€86.50
€92.56
+7.0%
11.3%€103.28€57.48n/a15
Sep ’25€78.00
€92.47
+18.6%
11.0%€104.05€57.91n/a15
Aug ’25€89.50
€93.31
+4.3%
11.3%€103.71€58.74n/a15
Jul ’25€90.50
€93.33
+3.1%
10.9%€102.45€59.61n/a15
Jun ’25€74.00
€82.03
+10.8%
10.1%€96.57€59.43n/a15
May ’25€66.50
€80.78
+21.5%
10.4%€95.97€59.06n/a15
Apr ’25€73.00
€80.24
+9.9%
10.7%€96.06€59.12n/a15
Mar ’25€74.00
€80.41
+8.7%
10.0%€91.36€59.06n/a15
Feb ’25€66.00
€80.03
+21.3%
10.0%€91.07€58.87n/a15
Jan ’25€68.50
€78.95
+15.3%
10.4%€89.98€58.17€112.0015
Dec ’24€66.50
€76.59
+15.2%
12.1%€87.39€47.34€95.0015
Nov ’24€73.50
€79.36
+8.0%
11.9%€87.93€49.17€84.0015
Oct ’24€71.00
€77.72
+9.5%
12.2%€86.74€48.50€86.5015
Sep ’24€70.50
€76.24
+8.1%
14.6%€86.33€47.34€78.0015
Aug ’24€65.50
€61.19
-6.6%
11.3%€71.42€45.53€89.5015
Jul ’24€52.50
€62.25
+18.6%
11.8%€73.45€46.82€90.5015
Jun ’24€51.50
€60.32
+17.1%
12.9%€72.79€45.15€74.0015
May ’24€58.00
€59.29
+2.2%
12.6%€72.28€44.83€66.5015
Apr ’24€51.24
€59.00
+15.1%
13.1%€72.83€45.17€73.0015
Mar ’24€52.82
€55.20
+4.5%
16.3%€74.67€39.70€74.0015
Feb ’24€49.57
€53.91
+8.8%
18.2%€74.54€39.63€66.0015
Jan ’24€43.39
€53.91
+24.2%
18.2%€74.54€39.63€68.5015
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 15 Analysts
€118.27
Fair Value
14.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
15
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/19 12:18
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is covered by 26 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Brian McNamaraBerenberg
Jason HaasBofA Global Research